- The Reds are -115 favorites vs the Pirates
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene
- Pirates starting pitcher: Vincent Velasquez
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cincinnati Reds (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 7-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 13-9 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -105 | -115 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -115 | -105 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 71.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 78% ROI)
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vincent Velasquez | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Hunter Greene | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -135 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.90 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+12.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.55 Units / 45% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 13-8 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 21.12% ROI).
- 7-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -27.96% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 1.32% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -9.36% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 13-9 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 7.65% ROI).
- 15-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 47.86% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -16.04% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 9.63% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .483 (28-for-58) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 572 fastballs at 100+ MPH since last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (110/314) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 90 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (11/37) against Vince Velasquez this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (8/33) against Vince Velasquez — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (18/61) against Vince Velasquez this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Vince Velasquez has thrown his slider 44% of the time (39/88) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Reds are just 1-8 (.111) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Reds are just 58-6 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are 4-4 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Pirates are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Pirates are just 112-75 (.599) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Pirates are just 72-94 (.434) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Reds hitters are slugging just .290 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Reds hitters are slugging just .178 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Reds are batting just .137 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,086 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .226 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .355 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .311 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Reds pitchers have walked 690 of 7,043 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .383 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 668 of 7,082 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (115.2 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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