Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 20

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 20, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Pirates (47-72) are -145 favorites vs the Reds (46-71)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Justin Dunn (0-1), 8.64 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Tyler Beede (1-2), 3.72 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 46-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 60-57 ATS.

Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -165O 8.5 +100+120
Pirates -1.5 +140U 8.5 -120-145

Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Michael Papierski has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 38 games at home (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)

Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Bligh Madris 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Greg Allen 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +400 0.5 -700

Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Bligh Madris 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Greg Allen 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Bligh Madris 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Greg Allen 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Dunn 3.5 -165 3.5 +115
Beede 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+13.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 36 away games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 games (+7.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 91 games (+6.10 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 26 games at home (+1.80 Units / 6% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-12.8 Units / -8.87% ROI).

  • 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -10.18% ROI
  • 59-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.51% ROI
  • 56-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -7% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.34% ROI).

  • 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.54% ROI
  • 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -7.99% ROI
  • 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.23% ROI

Justin Dunn has allowed an OPS of 1.225 (40 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .708 — first Percentile.

Justin Dunn has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (28 Total Bases / 35 ABs) this month (2 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .399 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (6/29) against Justin Dunn this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Justin Dunn has an ERA of 8.64 (8.1 IP)this month (2 games) — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 3.88 — sixth Percentile.

Tyler Beede: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (9/60) against Tyler Beede on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.

Tyler Beede has a strikeout rate of just 14% (30 SO in 216 PAs) this season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Tyler Beede has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (117/216) this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — eighth Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 29% of Tyler Beede’s breaking pitches (60/205) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 34-7 (.829) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Reds are just 3-57 (.050) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Reds are just 26-36 (.419) at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Reds are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 51-121 (.297) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 26-31 (.456) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Pirates are just 39-5 (.886) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .279 (544 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Reds are batting just .220 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Reds are batting just .232 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds hitters are slugging just .332 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .293 (3,209 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .657 (3,209 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,054 of 10,724 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .305 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 64 double plays in 915 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,019 of 10,689 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 280 of 2,954 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 221 of 2,438 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have allowed 1.60 runs per game (189/118) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Mitch Keller (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Undisclosed, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.