- The Yankees (62-26) are -190 favorites vs the Reds (33-55)
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 2.91 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (7-3), 2.74 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Cincinnati Reds (+155) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-190) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 33-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-45 ATS.
Reds vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -115 | +155 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -105 | -190 |
Reds vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+8.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+4.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.25 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 74% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 73% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.40 Units / 37% ROI)
Yankees vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Yankees vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Yankees vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Yankees vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 62 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 78 games (+21.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 44 games at home (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+0.55 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 41-47 against the Run Line (-11.65 Units / -10.66% ROI).
- 33-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.95 Units / -13.79% ROI
- 47-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.89% ROI
- 40-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -12.41% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 43-45 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -2.74% ROI).
- 62-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.65 Units / 10.66% ROI
- 40-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -9.86% ROI
- 45-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.55% ROI
Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 49% (26 SO in 53 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .071 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .071 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (172/295) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 58% of the time (544/943) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (212/353) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (35/107) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (315/580) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Reds are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Reds are just 5-19 (.208) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Reds are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Yankees are 7-16 (.304) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Yankees are 27-16 (.628) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Yankees are 35-10 (.778) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Yankees are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 108 strikeouts in 351 PA’s (31%) against RHP this month (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds hitters have 155 strikeouts in 520 PA’s (30%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .340 (4,778 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Reds hitters have 566 strikeouts in 2,343 PA’s (24%) against RHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.272 (632 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.061.
The Yankees are batting just .292 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 70% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 46 double plays in 689 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Reds have allowed 1.83 runs per game (161/88) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Reds pitchers have walked 947 of 9,600 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7
Yankees vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Hicks (Yankees): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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