Reds vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 14, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (62-26) are -190 favorites vs the Reds (33-55)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 2.91 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (7-3), 2.74 ERA
  • Watch the game on YES

The Cincinnati Reds (+155) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-190) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Reds vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 33-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-45 ATS.

Reds vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -135O 8 -115+155
Yankees -1.5 +110U 8 -105-190

Reds vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.25 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+8.30 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+4.25 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.25 Units / 56% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.40 Units / 37% ROI)

Yankees vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100

Yankees vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -200 0.5 +150

Yankees vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Yankees vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nestor Cortes 5.5 +100 5.5 -140
Luis Castillo 6.5 +105 6.5 -150
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 62 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 78 games (+21.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 44 games at home (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+0.55 Units / 3% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 41-47 against the Run Line (-11.65 Units / -10.66% ROI).

  • 33-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.95 Units / -13.79% ROI
  • 47-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.89% ROI
  • 40-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -12.41% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 43-45 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -2.74% ROI).

  • 62-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.65 Units / 10.66% ROI
  • 40-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -9.86% ROI
  • 45-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.55% ROI

Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 49% (26 SO in 53 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .071 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .071 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (172/295) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 58% of the time (544/943) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (212/353) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (35/107) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (315/580) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Reds are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Reds are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Reds are just 5-19 (.208) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Reds are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Yankees are 7-16 (.304) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Yankees are 27-16 (.628) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Yankees are 35-10 (.778) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Yankees are 36-5 (.878) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Reds hitters have 108 strikeouts in 351 PA’s (31%) against RHP this month (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds hitters have 155 strikeouts in 520 PA’s (30%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .340 (4,778 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.

Reds hitters have 566 strikeouts in 2,343 PA’s (24%) against RHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.272 (632 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.061.

The Yankees are batting just .292 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 70% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Yankees hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 46 double plays in 689 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Reds have allowed 1.83 runs per game (161/88) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Reds pitchers have walked 947 of 9,600 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7

Yankees vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Hicks (Yankees): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.