Royals vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 25, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Royals
  • Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
  • Watch the game on BSAZX

The Kansas City Royals (+120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) on Tuesday, April 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Royals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

This season, the Royals are 5-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 14-10 ATS.

Royals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -160O 10 -115+120
Diamondbacks -1.5 +135U 10 -105-145

Royals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Nicky Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Pavin Smith has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.85 Units / 87% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Pavin Smith 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Christian Walker 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Diamondbacks vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 1.5 +190 1.5 -250
Pavin Smith 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Christian Walker 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -145 0.5 +110

Diamondbacks vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Rojas 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Pavin Smith 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Christian Walker 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +225 0.5 -300

Diamondbacks vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brady Singer 4.5 -120 4.5 -110
Ryne Nelson 4.5 +115 4.5 -150
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.30 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 8-15 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -34.96% ROI).

  • 5-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -47.52% ROI
  • 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 3.13% ROI
  • 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -12.8% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-10 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 7.67% ROI).

  • 13-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 24.07% ROI
  • 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 3.75% ROI
  • 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -11.26% ROI

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 76% (45/59) against Brady Singer on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 70% (47/67) against Brady Singer this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 79% (15/19) against Brady Singer on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 79% (26/33) against Brady Singer vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 16% (9/55) against Ryne Nelson with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has allowed an OBP of just .176 (51 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .312 — 97th Percentile.

Ryne Nelson’s has 9 strikeouts and no walks against right-handed batters this season — tied for best K:BB ratio among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.2 — 100th Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has not walked any of the 52 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Royals are just 5-49 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.

The Royals are just 2-8 (.200) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .736.

The Royals are just 5-16 (.238) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.

The Royals are just 3-1 (.750) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Diamondbacks are just 111-23 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.

The Diamondbacks are just 101-33 (.754) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.

The Diamondbacks are just 67-12 (.848) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 30-162 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .256 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.

The Royals are batting just .133 against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .273 (830 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .258 (571 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 12 walks in 282 PA’s (4%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .277 (428 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .665 (1,971 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .300 in hitter’s counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Royals pitchers have walked 665 of 7,135 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 38 of 274 batters (14%) over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
  • Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
  • Mervyl Melendez (Royals): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
  • Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
  • Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.