- The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Watch the game on BSAZX
The Kansas City Royals (+120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) on Tuesday, April 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Royals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 5-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 14-10 ATS.
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -160 | O 10 -115 | +120 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +135 | U 10 -105 | -145 |
Royals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.85 Units / 87% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Diamondbacks vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 8-15 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -34.96% ROI).
- 5-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -47.52% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 3.13% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -12.8% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-10 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 7.67% ROI).
- 13-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 24.07% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 3.75% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -11.26% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 76% (45/59) against Brady Singer on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 70% (47/67) against Brady Singer this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 79% (15/19) against Brady Singer on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 79% (26/33) against Brady Singer vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 16% (9/55) against Ryne Nelson with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OBP of just .176 (51 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .312 — 97th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson’s has 9 strikeouts and no walks against right-handed batters this season — tied for best K:BB ratio among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.2 — 100th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has not walked any of the 52 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Royals are just 5-49 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Royals are just 2-8 (.200) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Royals are just 5-16 (.238) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Royals are just 3-1 (.750) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Diamondbacks are just 111-23 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 101-33 (.754) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 67-12 (.848) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-162 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .256 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.
The Royals are batting just .133 against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .273 (830 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .258 (571 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 12 walks in 282 PA’s (4%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .277 (428 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .665 (1,971 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .300 in hitter’s counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have walked 665 of 7,135 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 38 of 274 batters (14%) over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Mervyl Melendez (Royals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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