Royals vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 28

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 28, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Twins are -275 favorites vs the Royals
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
  • Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Kansas City Royals (+225) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-275) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).

The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Royals are 6-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 15-11 ATS.

Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 +110O 7.5 -105+225
Twins -1.5 -130U 7.5 -115-275

Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Royals vs Twins and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+6.50 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Edward Olivares has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)

Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Trevor Larnach 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
MJ Melendez 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Trevor Larnach 0.5 -135 0.5 +100
Jorge Polanco 0.5 -175 0.5 +130
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
MJ Melendez 0.5 -135 0.5 +105

Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Trevor Larnach 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +270 0.5 -375
MJ Melendez 0.5 +220 0.5 -300

Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jordan Lyles 4.5 -125 4.5 -105
Pablo Lopez 6.5 -120 6.5 -110
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 47% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 9-17 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -34.51% ROI).

  • 6-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -44.93% ROI
  • 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -4.84% ROI
  • 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -4.24% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 15-11 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 14.49% ROI).

  • 15-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 1.73% ROI
  • 10-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -14.76% ROI
  • 13-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 7.01% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (13/104) against Jordan Lyles this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (34/214) against Jordan Lyles this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (20/150) against Jordan Lyles in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of 44% (53/121) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 42% (13 SO in 31 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (34/91) against Pablo Lopez this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.

Hitters have chased 51 of Pablo Lopez’s 113 fastballs out of the zone (45%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Royals are just 5-50 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.

The Royals are just 3-9 (.250) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .745.

The Royals are just 6-18 (.250) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

The Royals are just 19-50 (.275) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 6-0 (1.000) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .585.

The Twins are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 8% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .554 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .568 (661 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Royals are batting just .124 against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Twins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (196 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.

Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 212 of their 965 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Twins hitters have an OPS of just .651 (196 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.

Twins hitters have an OBP of just .214 (518 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Royals have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have walked 12 of 232 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
  • James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Elbow, Day-to-Day
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
  • Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
  • Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60

Bet now on Royals vs Twins and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM first bet offer for $1000
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.