- The Twins are -275 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Kansas City Royals (+225) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-275) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 6-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 15-11 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | +225 |
| Twins | -1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -115 | -275 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+6.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 9-17 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -34.51% ROI).
- 6-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -44.93% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -4.84% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -4.24% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 15-11 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 14.49% ROI).
- 15-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 1.73% ROI
- 10-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -14.76% ROI
- 13-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 7.01% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (13/104) against Jordan Lyles this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (34/214) against Jordan Lyles this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (20/150) against Jordan Lyles in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of 44% (53/121) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 42% (13 SO in 31 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (34/91) against Pablo Lopez this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 51 of Pablo Lopez’s 113 fastballs out of the zone (45%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 5-50 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Royals are just 3-9 (.250) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Royals are just 6-18 (.250) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Royals are just 19-50 (.275) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 6-0 (1.000) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Twins are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 8% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .554 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .568 (661 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Royals are batting just .124 against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (196 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 212 of their 965 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .651 (196 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .214 (518 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Royals have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 12 of 232 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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