- The Twins (71-70) are -175 favorites vs the Royals (57-86)
- Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (4-10), 5.14 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (8-7), 4.68 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+145) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-175) on Thursday, September 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 57-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 64-74 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | +145 |
| Twins | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -115 | -175 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Thursday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+15.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 away games (+15.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+14.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+12.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+12.15 Units / 55% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 51 games at home (+15.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 54 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Gio Urshela | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Bundy | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +125 |
| Daniel Lynch | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 89 games (+12.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 32 away games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 78 of their last 139 games (+11.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+2.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 66-73 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -10.57% ROI).
- 57-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.75 Units / -9.22% ROI
- 70-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -1.41% ROI
- 66-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -7.56% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 64-74 against the Run Line (-13.1 Units / -7.84% ROI).
- 71-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 67-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.1% ROI
- 62-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.1 Units / -7.84% ROI
Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OBP of .315 (438 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OBP of .373 (228 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 0 Percentile.
The average home run distance against Daniel Lynch against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 413.3 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 399.2
Opponents are hitting .307 (62-for-202) against Daniel Lynch versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .220 — first Percentile.
Dylan Bundy: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 70% of Dylan Bundy’s pitches (364/519) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Dylan Bundy’s breaking pitches (446/1,161) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 72% (671/931) in two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 74% (383/519) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 4-35 (.103) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Royals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 57-73 (.438) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Royals are just 8-61 (.116) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 63-21 (.750) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Twins are just 10-37 (.213) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Twins are just 15-27 (.357) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 608 strikeouts in 3,097 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .981 (2,166 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Royals hitters are slugging just .235 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 34% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have drawn 1 walk in 70 PA’s (1%) against LHP this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins are batting .292 at home this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Twins hitters are slugging just .418 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 1,116 of 11,656 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Royals have allowed 1.73 runs per game (247/143) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
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