Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 27

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 27, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Twins (41-33) are -125 favorites vs the Guardians (36-32)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (3-1), 2.53 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (4-5), 3.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Monday, June 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 41-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 37-31 ATS.

Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins-1.5 +135O 8 -110-125
Guardians +1.5 -160U 8 -110+105

Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 68.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 61% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.30 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Josh Naylor 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Myles Straw 0.5 +1150 0.5

Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Josh Naylor 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Myles Straw 0.5 -165 0.5 +115

Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Josh Naylor 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Myles Straw 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Triston McKenzie 5.5 +115 5.5 -165
Sonny Gray 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 72 games (+12.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 62 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 37 games (+4.00 Units / 10% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 33-41 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -10.74% ROI).

  • 41-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 4.12% ROI
  • 34-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -4.81% ROI
  • 35-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -3.28% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 37-31 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 4.5% ROI).

  • 36-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 6.97% ROI
  • 32-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -1.73% ROI
  • 30-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -6.89% ROI

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (431/843) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (83 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Hitters have swung at 41% of Sonny Gray’s non-fastballs (524/1,287) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.

Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 53% (296/564) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (61/205) against Triston McKenzie this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .105 (40-for-381) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: .168 — 98th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .186 (57-for-307) against Triston McKenzie since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .150 (15-for-100) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 99th Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are 23-17 (.575) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .511.

The Twins are 36-11 (.766) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Twins are just 2-3 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 7-27 (.206) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Guardians are 23-2 (.920) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .897.

The Guardians are 6-24 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .103.

Twins hitters are slugging .541 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

Twins hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .564.

Twins hitters have just 2 strikeouts in 24 PA’s (8%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins hitters have just 16 strikeouts in 111 PA’s (14%) against LHP over the last 14 days (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .630 (757 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Guardians hitters have just 477 strikeouts in 2,576 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Twins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Guardians have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Twins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.