- The Twins (41-33) are -125 favorites vs the Guardians (36-32)
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (3-1), 2.53 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (4-5), 3.51 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Monday, June 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 41-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 37-31 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -110 | -125 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -110 | +105 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 68.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 61% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.30 Units / 72% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -165 |
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 72 games (+12.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 62 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 37 games (+4.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 33-41 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -10.74% ROI).
- 41-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 4.12% ROI
- 34-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -4.81% ROI
- 35-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -3.28% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 37-31 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 4.5% ROI).
- 36-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 6.97% ROI
- 32-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -1.73% ROI
- 30-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -6.89% ROI
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (431/843) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (83 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Hitters have swung at 41% of Sonny Gray’s non-fastballs (524/1,287) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 53% (296/564) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (61/205) against Triston McKenzie this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .105 (40-for-381) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: .168 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .186 (57-for-307) against Triston McKenzie since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .150 (15-for-100) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 99th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 23-17 (.575) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Twins are 36-11 (.766) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Twins are just 2-3 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 7-27 (.206) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Guardians are 23-2 (.920) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Guardians are 6-24 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .541 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Twins hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Twins hitters have just 2 strikeouts in 24 PA’s (8%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have just 16 strikeouts in 111 PA’s (14%) against LHP over the last 14 days (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .630 (757 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Guardians hitters have just 477 strikeouts in 2,576 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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