- The Twins are -165 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Minnesota Twins (-165) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+140) on Saturday, April 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 0-0 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +100 | O 8 -110 | -165 |
| Royals | +1.5 -120 | U 8 -110 | +140 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.70 Units / 190% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lyles | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 82 away games (+1.65 Units / 2% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 108 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 82 games at home (+0.35 Units / 0% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (259/509) with two-strikes in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (408/791) on sliders since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (590/1,159) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (760/1,858) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles had a strike rate of just 60% (540/893) in two strike counts in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .276 (196-for-710) against Jordan Lyles in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — sixth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 11-28 (.282) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 22-67 (.247) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals were just 3-77 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Royals were just 4-41 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals were just 26-55 (.321) on the road in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Royals are just 25-76 (.248) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins have an average HR distance of 404.1 feet since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3.
The Twins have barrels in 6% of PA’s since the start of last season (770/12,152) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters slugged just .368 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Royals hitters have just 642 strikeouts in 3,264 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .991 (2,308 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Royals hitters have just 743 strikeouts in 3,725 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers walked 589 of 6,249 batters (9%) in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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