Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 20, ALCS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 20, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Yankees
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino, 4.76 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 3.17 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The New York Yankees (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Thursday, October 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Houston for this postseason game.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Yankees vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 102-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 88-78 ATS.

Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees+1.5 -185O 7 -110+120
Astros -1.5 +150U 7 -110-145

Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 28 away games (+14.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 46 of his last 82 games at home (+15.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Justin Verlander has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games at home (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)

Astros vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Chas McCormick 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Jose Altuve 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Astros vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Chas McCormick 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jose Altuve 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Astros vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Chas McCormick 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Jose Altuve 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Astros vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
Luis Severino 4.5 -120 4.5 -120
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.80 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 153 games (+27.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 94 of their last 164 games (+27.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 103 of their last 150 games (+23.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 147 games (+16.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games at home (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 75-93 against the Run Line (-20.15 Units / -10.32% ROI).

  • 102-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -0.46% ROI
  • 77-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.2 Units / -8.79% ROI
  • 85-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.05% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 88-78 against the Run Line (+11.65 Units / 5.97% ROI).

  • 110-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.3 Units / 6.6% ROI
  • 61-95 when betting on the total runs Over for -42.15 Units / -23.19% ROI
  • 95-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +27.2 Units / 14.78% ROI

Luis Severino has allowed an OPS of just .048 (21 PA’s) this month (1 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .561 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .119 (26-for-218) against Luis Severino with two-strikes this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .168 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitless in 20 AB’s against Luis Severino this month (1 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .193 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents were hitless in 20 AB’s against Luis Severino — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.

Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (394/825) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 6-42 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have drawn 1,087 walks in 10,480 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .745 (4,623 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .265 (6,317 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.