- The Mets (60-37) are -185 favorites vs the Yankees (66-32)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán (0-1), 15.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (6-2), 2.28 ERA
- Watch the game on ESPN
The New York Yankees (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Yankees vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 66-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-46 ATS.
Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -120 | +150 |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 +100 | -185 |
Yankees vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 62.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 away games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 32 away games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+7.05 Units / 110% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+19.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+13.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 82% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Mets vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Mets vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 7.5 -140 | 7.5 +100 |
| Domingo German | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 88 games (+16.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 41 games at home (+17.77 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 97 games (+13.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+8.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+7.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 47-51 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -4.98% ROI).
- 66-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.65 Units / 6.98% ROI
- 48-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 47-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -5.14% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 51-46 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 4.54% ROI).
- 60-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.7 Units / 9.95% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 2.47% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -10.69% ROI
Domingo Germán: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of 34% (282/821) against Domingo German last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .170 (34-for-200) against Domingo German’s non-fastballs last season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 92nd Percentile.
Domingo German threw his curveball 34% of the time (536/1,579) last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 95th Percentile.
Domingo German allowed a slugging percentage of .578 (104 Total Bases / 180 ABs) on fastballs last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .450 — fifth Percentile.
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has struck out 37% (183/495) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 19% (6/32) against Max Scherzer this month (4 games) — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 12% (2/16) against Max Scherzer — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (124/318) against Max Scherzer with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Yankees are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Yankees are 37-12 (.755) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Yankees are 5-26 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 52-16 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mets are 51-15 (.773) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are 24-12 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are just 6-16 (.273) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mets are 51-3 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.284 (708 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.063.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .423 (164 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .984 (164 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Yankees hitters have drawn 720 walks in 6,908 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7
Yankees pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees have won 62% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
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