Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 27, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Mets (60-37) are -185 favorites vs the Yankees (66-32)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán (0-1), 15.00 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (6-2), 2.28 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The New York Yankees (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Yankees vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 66-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-46 ATS.

Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees+1.5 -140O 7.5 -120+150
Mets -1.5 +115U 7.5 +100-185

Yankees vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 62.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 away games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 32 away games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+7.05 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+19.60 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+13.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)

Mets vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Mets vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Mets vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Mets vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Scherzer 7.5 -140 7.5 +100
Domingo German 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 88 games (+16.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 41 games at home (+17.77 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 97 games (+13.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+8.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+7.60 Units / 12% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 47-51 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -4.98% ROI).

  • 66-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.65 Units / 6.98% ROI
  • 48-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -3.51% ROI
  • 47-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -5.14% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 51-46 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 4.54% ROI).

  • 60-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.7 Units / 9.95% ROI
  • 49-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 2.47% ROI
  • 42-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -10.69% ROI

Opponents had a chase percentage of 34% (282/821) against Domingo German last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .170 (34-for-200) against Domingo German’s non-fastballs last season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 92nd Percentile.

Domingo German threw his curveball 34% of the time (536/1,579) last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 95th Percentile.

Domingo German allowed a slugging percentage of .578 (104 Total Bases / 180 ABs) on fastballs last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .450 — fifth Percentile.

Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Scherzer has struck out 37% (183/495) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 19% (6/32) against Max Scherzer this month (4 games) — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 12% (2/16) against Max Scherzer — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (124/318) against Max Scherzer with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Yankees are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Yankees are 37-12 (.755) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Yankees are 5-26 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 52-16 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Mets are 51-15 (.773) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are 24-12 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are just 6-16 (.273) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Mets are 51-3 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.284 (708 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.063.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .423 (164 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .984 (164 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Yankees hitters have drawn 720 walks in 6,908 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7

Yankees pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Yankees have won 62% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Mets vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.