Yankees vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees are -155 favorites vs the Rangers
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (6-3), 3.41 ERA
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez (12-7), 2.93 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Yankees (-155) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (+130) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Arlington.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Yankees vs Rangers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 97-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 84-74 ATS.

Yankees vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +110O 8 -115-155
Rangers +1.5 -135U 8 -105+130

Yankees vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 13 away games (+17.55 Units / 71% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 70 of his last 119 games (+21.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 25 of his last 30 games (+21.30 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 69 games (+19.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 66 games at home (+15.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 58 of his last 93 games (+14.65 Units / 13% ROI)

Rangers vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Bubba Thompson 0.5 +1100 0.5
Corey Seager 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Jonah Heim 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Joshua Jung 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Rangers vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Bubba Thompson 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Corey Seager 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Jonah Heim 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Joshua Jung 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Rangers vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Bubba Thompson 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Corey Seager 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jonah Heim 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Joshua Jung 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Rangers vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Martin Perez 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
Luis Severino 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 away games (+7.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 65 of their last 119 games (+16.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 147 games (+7.80 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.40 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 71-87 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -9.81% ROI).

  • 97-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 0.25% ROI
  • 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -6.04% ROI
  • 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -2.85% ROI

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 84-74 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.07% ROI).

  • 66-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -12.83% ROI
  • 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -0.37% ROI
  • 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.8 Units / -7.39% ROI

The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 397.8

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .080 (2 GB hits out of 25 GBs) against Luis Severino with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 53 of Luis Severino’s 198 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 27%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .127 (26-for-204) against Luis Severino with two-strikes this season — tied for 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 93rd Percentile.

Martín Pérez: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 44% (1,062/2,427) against Martin Perez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of Martin Perez’s pitches (396/752) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Martin Perez has not allowed a home run in any of the last 47.2 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 73.1.

Hitters have swung at 45% of Martin Perez’s pitches (1,297/2,902) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — fourth Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Yankees are 10-39 (.204) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Yankees are 40-37 (.519) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Yankees are 74-5 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Yankees are 42-12 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Rangers are just 51-10 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Rangers are just 63-80 (.441) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Rangers are just 47-10 (.825) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.

The Rangers are just 4-74 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have drawn 1,080 walks in 10,402 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .748 (3,733 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Yankees hitters have drawn 451 walks in 4,545 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .301 (3,714 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Rangers hitters are slugging .574 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

Rangers hitters have drawn 266 walks in 3,714 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .652 (3,947 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Yankees pitchers have walked 15 of 107 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 136 of 1,404 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 564 of 6,024 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Rangers have won just just 17% of the time at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Rangers vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Cole Ragans (Rangers): Calf, D15
  • Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Elbow, D60
  • Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
  • Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hip, D60
  • Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
  • Dane Dunning (Rangers): Hip, D15
  • Nicholas Solak (Rangers): Foot, D60
  • Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, Day-to-Day
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.