- The Rays (73-57) are -135 favorites vs the Yankees (79-53)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt (5-3), 2.89 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (9-7), 4.21 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The New York Yankees (+110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-135) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Yankees vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 78-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 62-65 ATS.
Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -110 | +110 |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -110 | -135 |
Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 10 away games (+13.55 Units / 74% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 17 away games (+10.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 away games (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+0.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+8.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+4.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 56-73 against the Run Line (-20.5 Units / -13.63% ROI).
- 78-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -2.19% ROI
- 59-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -9.1% ROI
- 65-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 62-65 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -1.29% ROI).
- 70-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -2.21% ROI
- 58-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -4.51% ROI
- 60-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -3.42% ROI
Clarke Schmidt: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
16 of Clarke Schmidt’s 36 strikeouts (44%) have come on cutters this season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 57% (12/21) against Clarke Schmidt — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — third Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has thrown low pitches 59% of the time (36/61) during extra innings this season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 88th Percentile.
Corey Kluber: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has allowed an OPS of .920 (122 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .683 — second Percentile.
Corey Kluber has walked 10 of 293 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 96th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has a strikeout rate of just 12% (14 SO in 122 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 17% (4/23) against Corey Kluber — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 25-4 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Yankees are 9-35 (.205) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Yankees are 45-20 (.692) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Yankees are 52-9 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are just 60-8 (.882) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 43-23 (.652) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Rays are 28-8 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
The Rays are 13-10 (.565) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
The Yankees are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Yankees hitters are slugging .451 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored 1.57 runs per game (454/289) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Rays hitters have 831 strikeouts in 3,457 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 151 double plays in 1,984 opportunities (8%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters are slugging .598 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 43% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 347 of 4,835 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 744 of 10,779 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 308 of 4,781 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 151 of 2,628 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 58 of 1,166 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Triceps, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, Day-to-Day
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Undisclosed, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Jameson Taillon (Yankees): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Leg, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
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