- The Red Sox are -140 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-140) on Wednesday, September 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 73-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 72-73 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -110 | +115 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 -110 | -140 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 56.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games at home (+9.10 Units / 152% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 away games (+8.25 Units / 79% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 away games (+8.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 25 games (+15.95 Units / 58% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 70-75 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -4.61% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -5.61% ROI
- 65-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.2 Units / -10.82% ROI
- 75-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 2.09% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 72-73 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -6.07% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 77-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.5 Units / 5.32% ROI
- 62-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.3 Units / -14.59% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (51/300) against Clarke Schmidt since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (35/209) against Clarke Schmidt this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has allowed an OBP of just .264 (303 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .310 — 93rd Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has thrown his cutter 31% of the time (324/1,058) with two-strikes since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CUT; League Avg: 13% — 92nd Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (97/173) against Tanner Houck in non-two strike counts this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% (223/424) against Tanner Houck since last season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.
Tanner Houck has located his fastballs down 45% of the time (460/1,032) since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .206 (20 Total Bases / 97 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 92nd Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are just 14-26 (.350) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Yankees are 48-15 (.762) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Yankees are just 8-49 (.140) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are 56-3 (.949) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are just 15-23 (.395) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Red Sox are just 3-128 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .119 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .178.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,187 of their 5,333 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Yankees are batting just .225 this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Yankees hitters have drawn 268 walks in 2,636 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .372 (648 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .314 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .531 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .456.
The Red Sox are batting .282 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Yankees pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 10 of 53 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 51 of 485 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.11 (1026.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .266 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Fatigue/Illness, Day-to-Day
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Side, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jasson Domínguez (Yankees): Elbow, D10
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