- The Yankees (85-56) are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox (69-72)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (11-7), 3.20 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (9-11), 4.28 ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The New York Yankees (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Tuesday, September 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 84-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 70-66 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -115 | -165 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -105 | +140 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Tuesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 13 away games (+17.55 Units / 71% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 55 games (+19.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+19.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+15.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+13.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Gerrit Cole | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 67 of their last 121 games (+10.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 60-76 against the Run Line (-18.45 Units / -11.66% ROI).
- 84-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -1.07% ROI
- 64-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -7.87% ROI
- 69-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -1.02% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 70-66 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.14% ROI).
- 67-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.85 Units / -6.43% ROI
- 62-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -6.36% ROI
- 66-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.15% ROI
Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
52% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .254 (16-for-63) against Gerrit Cole on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — 96th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 36% (99/274) against Gerrit Cole when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has located his pitches away 59% of the time (1,637/2,784) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 160 of Nick Pivetta’s 686 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (217/1,077) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 6.79 (59.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.49 — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,542/3,665) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 113-37 (.753) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Yankees are 39-25 (.609) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Yankees are 25-108 (.188) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Yankees are 159-13 (.924) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are 22-15 (.595) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 148-23 (.865) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Red Sox are just 152-20 (.884) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Red Sox are 144-47 (.754) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are slugging just .235 on the road this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Yankees are batting just .320 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .463 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Red Sox hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 176 of 2,712 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 42% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 142 times since the start of last season — 4th most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, Day-to-Day
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, D10
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Leg, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
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