- The Bills are -3 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- Watch the game on NBC | UNIV
The Buffalo Bills (6-10) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (10-6) on Jan. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Miami Gardens, FL.
The Bills are betting favorites in this Week 18 matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Bills vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -160 |
| Dolphins | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +135 |
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 18 game with 59.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Dolphins Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this Week 18 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jaylen Waddle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+3.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 6-10 (-4.85 Units / -27.95% ROI).
- Bills are 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -5.5% ROI
- Bills are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Bills are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins went 10-6 (+3.45 Units / 19.55% ROI).
- Dolphins are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -2.51% ROI
- Dolphins are 9-7 when betting the Over for +1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI
- Dolphins are 7-9 when betting the Under for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Bills are undefeated (4-0) since Week 14 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Bills are undefeated (9-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .604.
The Bills are undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since Week 14 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when not forcing a turnover since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins are undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .581.
The Dolphins are 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Dolphins are undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .636.
The Dolphins are winless (0-3) vs top 10 run offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphins RBs have averaged 2.1 yards after contact per carry this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 1.8 yards after contact per carry this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have averaged 2.1 yards after contact per carry this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 1.8 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have averaged 2.0 yards after contact per carry since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Bills ran 29.9% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 3rd-best in NFL. Dolphins allowed their opponent to run 24.5% of plays in the red zone last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have 62 touchdown passes since the 2022 season — T-2nd-most in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 52 passing TDs since the 2022 season — T-4th-most in NFL.
Bills RBs have gained 620 yards on 67 receptions (9.3 YPR) this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 9.1 Yards Per Reception to RBs this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 17 — T-most in NFL.
The Bills have run successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills have gone three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Bills have gone three and out on 12% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have 18 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have scored 13 TDs from their own territory since the 2022 season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have scored 8 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have not recorded a TD in 11 drives in the 3rd quarter since Week 14 — T-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 9% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 46% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills defense has allowed 1 of 6 (17%) TDs through the air since Week 14 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Bills defense has allowed just one passing TD (135 pass attempts) since Week 14 — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 22.8.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense allowed 6 TD passes in Week 17 — most in NFL.
The Dolphins defense allowed 15.0 yards per dropback (331 yards/22 attempts) in Week 17 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.1.
20% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Dolphins defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 27 of 381 carries (7%) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
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