- The Ravens are -2.5 point favorites vs the Bills
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC
The Buffalo Bills (3-0-0) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens (1-2-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
The Ravens are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Ravens Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 |
| Ravens | -2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -130 |
Bills vs. Ravens Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Ravens Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Justice Hill has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Rashod Bateman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rashod Bateman has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Ravens vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF) | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -110 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 36.5 -125 | 36.5 -105 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 47.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 31.5 -120 | 31.5 -110 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Ravens vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 68.5 -115 | 68.5 -115 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 51.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 57.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 32.5 -110 | 32.5 -120 |
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have scored last in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 44% ROI)
Ravens Best Bets:
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 71% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Bills are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 52.46% ROI
- Bills are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Bills are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI
Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens are 1-2 (-1.15 Units / -35.38% ROI).
- Ravens are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -66.67% ROI
- Ravens are 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Ravens are 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Bills are undefeated (3-0) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .466.
The Bills are 9-1 (.900) at home since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .548.
The Bills are undefeated (5-0) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .519.
The Bills were 8-1 (.889) when not losing a fumble last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.
Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .513.
The Ravens were 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Ravens were 6-1 (.857) on the road last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .442.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are averaging 4.7 yards per carry since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 4.8 yards per carry since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Ravens have thrown the ball just 45.9% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 5.8 yards per dropback since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Ravens rushed the ball on 71.7% of plays from scrimmage last week — highest in NFL. The Bills allowed 5.4 yards per carry last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have run successful plays on 61.3% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed successful plays on 56.2% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have run successful plays on 58.1% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed successful plays on 59.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have gone three and out on 9.7% of their drives this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Ravens have forced three and outs on 9.1% of opponent drives this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 57% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Bills have averaged 0.50 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bills have started 9 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.
The Bills have scored 10 TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats
The Ravens have rushed for 20+ yards 25 times since the 2022 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Ravens had 21 rushes of 20+ yards last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Ravens have faced a blitz just 5% of the time on 3rd and short since the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Ravens have targeted TEs 32% of the time (340 Pass Attempts/1,071 plays) since the 2022 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 25% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Bills defense have allowed -1.38 epa per play with tight coverage this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.55.
Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats
The Ravens defense allowed successful plays on 27% of plays with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Ravens defense allowed -0.34 epa per play with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Ravens defense allowed -0.14 epa per play in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Ravens defense has allowed 16 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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