- The Bills are -3 point favorites vs the Chiefs
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this AFC Divisional Playoff game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs (10-7) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (8-10) on Jan. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-120).
The Chiefs vs. Bills Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +120 |
| Bills | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -145 |
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this playoff game game with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 72.9% confidence.
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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 away games (+7.50 Units / 82% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kadarius Toney has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Chiefs
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +550 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +700 |
| Travis Kelce | +800 |
| James Cook | +800 |
| Rashee Rice | +800 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | -120 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +100 |
| Rashee Rice | +110 |
| Travis Kelce | +125 |
| James Cook | +140 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 18.5 -120 | 18.5 -110 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 39.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 |
| Travis Kelce | 61.5 -110 | 61.5 -120 |
| Justin Watson | 17.5 -115 | 17.5 -115 |
| Mecole Hardman | 17.5 -110 | 17.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28.5 -120 | 28.5 -110 |
| James Cook | 61.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 61.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -110 |
| Josh Allen | 42.5 -110 | 42.5 -120 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games (+13.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 away games (+1.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+1.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 9-7 (+1.3 Units / 6.88% ROI).
- Chiefs are 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -9.08% ROI
- Chiefs are 5-12 when betting the Over for -8.2 Units / -43.85% ROI
- Chiefs are 12-5 when betting the Under for +6.5 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 8-10 (-2.85 Units / -14.54% ROI).
- Bills are 12-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -2% ROI
- Bills are 7-11 when betting the Over for -5.1 Units / -25.76% ROI
- Bills are 11-7 when betting the Under for +3.3 Units / 16.67% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs are 19-5 (.792) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 54 times since the 2022 season — 5th-most in NFL.
The Chiefs are 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Chiefs are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .661.
The Chiefs are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .670.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills are 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Bills are 9-1 (.900) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 19 passes since the 2022 season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Bills are 3-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 8 passes this season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Bills are 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .496.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have run successful plays on 51.1% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 46.3% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Bills are averaging 4.7 yards per carry on first down since the 2022 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 5.0 yards per carry on first down since the 2022 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills are 9-1 (.900) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 19 passes since the 2022 season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
Chiefs RBs have averaged 9.4 yards after the catch this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 8.8 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 19-5 (.792) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 54 times since the 2022 season — 5th-most in NFL.
The Chiefs scored on 50% of their drives in the first half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-best in NFL. The Bills defense allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in the first half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 47% on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Chiefs started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 18 — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Chiefs have gone three and out on 14% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have gone three and out on 12% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills have run successful plays on 50% of plays in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Bills have run successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills have gone three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed just 4.4 yards per dropback (675 yards/152 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Chiefs defense pressured opposing QBs 20 times in Week 18 — most in NFL.
The Chiefs defense sacked opponents 6 times in Week 18 — 2nd-most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 551 attempts (0%) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1%.
The Bills defense has allowed scores on 16% of opponent drives in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
Offenses facing the Bills have thrown deep balls on just 9% of pass attempts (48/551) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 48% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
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