- The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC
The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-1-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Falcons Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -190 |
| Falcons | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +155 |
Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.75 Units / 74% ROI)
- Samaje Perine has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rondale Moore has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 41.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 13.5 -115 | 13.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 28.5 -120 | 28.5 -115 |
| Justin Watson (KC) | 18.5 -120 | 18.5 -110 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 18.5 -115 | 18.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 71.5 -115 | 71.5 -115 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 away games (+2.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.60 Units / 19% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.65% ROI).
- Chiefs are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 45.98% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Chiefs are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Falcons are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 5.08% ROI
- Falcons are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Chiefs are 9-2 (.818) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 15 s since the 2023 season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 9-4 (.692) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .285.
The Chiefs are 16-6 (.727) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .298.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Falcons are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.
The Falcons are 2-11 (.154) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons were 2-5 (.286) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .443.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been successful on 49.4% of plays they have ran against a base front this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on 54.5% of plays with a base front this season — worst in NFL.
The Falcons ran successful plays on 63.6% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs allowed successful plays on 66.7% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Falcons scored on 55.6% of their drives last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 54.5% of opponent drives last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 67.9% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 67.6% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 68.4% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have scored on 50% of their drives in the second half this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 60% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have averaged 0.29 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.79 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.53.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 69% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Chiefs have gone three and out on 14% of their drives since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have not converted a first down on 8 plays (0%) on 3rd and long this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Falcons have targeted WRs 41% of the time (241 Pass Attempts/585 plays) since the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 69% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of plays with a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense allowed a passer rating of 143.5 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Falcons defense allowed a passer rating of 131.3 with a light rush (33 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 81.0.
Only 7% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Falcons defense have allowed 0.04 epa per play open coverage this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.35.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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