- The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC
The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-1-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Falcons Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -190 |
| Falcons | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +155 |
Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Falcons vs Chiefs and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.75 Units / 74% ROI)
- Samaje Perine has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rondale Moore has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 41.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 13.5 -115 | 13.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 28.5 -120 | 28.5 -115 |
| Justin Watson (KC) | 18.5 -120 | 18.5 -110 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 18.5 -115 | 18.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 71.5 -115 | 71.5 -115 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 away games (+2.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.60 Units / 19% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.65% ROI).
- Chiefs are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 45.98% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Chiefs are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Falcons are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 5.08% ROI
- Falcons are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Chiefs are 9-2 (.818) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 15 s since the 2023 season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 9-4 (.692) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .285.
The Chiefs are 16-6 (.727) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .298.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Falcons are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.
The Falcons are 2-11 (.154) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons were 2-5 (.286) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .443.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been successful on 49.4% of plays they have ran against a base front this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on 54.5% of plays with a base front this season — worst in NFL.
The Falcons ran successful plays on 63.6% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs allowed successful plays on 66.7% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Falcons scored on 55.6% of their drives last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 54.5% of opponent drives last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 67.9% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 67.6% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 68.4% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have scored on 50% of their drives in the second half this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 60% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have averaged 0.29 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.79 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.53.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 69% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Chiefs have gone three and out on 14% of their drives since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have not converted a first down on 8 plays (0%) on 3rd and long this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Falcons have targeted WRs 41% of the time (241 Pass Attempts/585 plays) since the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 69% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of plays with a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense allowed a passer rating of 143.5 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Falcons defense allowed a passer rating of 131.3 with a light rush (33 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 81.0.
Only 7% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Falcons defense have allowed 0.04 epa per play open coverage this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.35.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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