Colts vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 9:48 AM

The Jets are -4 point favorites vs the Colts
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (4-6-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (3-7-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Jets are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Colts vs. Jets Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colts	+4 -110	43.5 -105	+170
Jets	-4 -110	43.5 -115	-210

Colts vs. Jets Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Jets will win this game with 72.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Jets Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 52% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 59% ROI)
Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jeremy Ruckert has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 68% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Jeremy Ruckert has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.05 Units / 63% ROI)
Aaron Rodgers has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 96% ROI)
Aaron Rodgers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 62% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.10 Units / 5% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+0.95 Units / 4% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 36% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+3.05 Units / 22% ROI)
The New York Jets have scored first in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 32% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.90 Units / 18% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.85 Units / 14% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 7-3 (+3.7 Units / 34.1% ROI).

Colts are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -17.94% ROI
Colts are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Colts are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 3-7 (-4.8 Units / -42.86% ROI).

Jets are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -51.55% ROI
Jets are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -13.64% ROI
Jets are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Colts are winless (0-4) vs top 10 pass offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .404.

The Colts were undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 22 points last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .747.

The Colts were 5-3 (.625) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Colts are 9-3 (.750) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .629.

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Jets are 5-1 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed an average of 133.4 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Jets are winless (0-9) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .425.

The Jets are winless (0-3) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.

The Jets are winless (0-9) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .425.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

Jets RBs have 46.3 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Colts have averaged 38.6 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Jets WRs have been targeted 17 times inside the 10 yardline this season — 3rd-most in NFL. The Colts have allowed 7 receiving touchdowns inside the 10 yardline to WRs this season — T-most in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on just 39.7% of pass attempts against a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 38.5% of pass attempts with a base rush this season — best in NFL.

The Colts have been successful on just 37.6% of plays they have ran with motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.2% of plays against motion since the 2023 season — best in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on just 39.9% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 39.1% of pass attempts with a base front this season — best in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Colts have thrown 59% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.

The Colts ran successful plays on 27% of plays in close and late situations last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Colts converted first downs on just 6 of 53 plays (11%) in close and late situations last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets ran successful plays on 29% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jets converted first downs on just 19 of 51 plays (37%) on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Jets averaged 11.8 drives per TD last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Jets averaged -0.25 epa per play against a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

50% of the plays ran against the Colts were in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 58% of pass attempts on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 32% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 71% of pass attempts in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

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