Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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Patriots player number 38 running with NFL game ball in hand.

(Winslow Townson/AP Images)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:52 AM

The Patriots are -1 point favorites vs the Dolphins
Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Miami Dolphins (1-3-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (1-3-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough, MA.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Dolphins	+1 -110	36.5 -110	+100
Patriots	-1 -110	36.5 -110	-120

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Dolphins vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.75 Units / 69% ROI)
Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.55 Units / 56% ROI)
Raheem Mostert has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+3.80 Units / 31% ROI)
Antonio Gibson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Demario Douglas has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.85 Units / 20% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.35 Units / 37% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.60 Units / 14% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.05 Units / 10% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 0-4 (-4.5 Units / -100% ROI).

Dolphins are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -50.86% ROI
Dolphins are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Dolphins are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).

Patriots are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 2.5% ROI
Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Dolphins are 8-2 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Patriots has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 44 s since the 2023 season — 3rd-highest in NFL.

The Dolphins are winless (0-4) when passing for less than 200 yards since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .405.

The Dolphins are 1-3 (.250) this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Patriots are 1-8 (.111) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .548.

The Patriots are winless (0-9) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.

The Patriots were 1-7 (.125) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have run just 38.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run just 41.5% of plays in their territory since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Patriots ran successful plays on just 30.4% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins allowed successful plays on just 32.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL.

Patriots RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 6.6% of 455 carries since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 10+ yards on just 7.0% of carries to RBs since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on just 41.2% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 51.7% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 19.1% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on just 21.3% of passing plays since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have scored 9 TDs from their own territory since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 6 of 19 plays (32%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 11% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Patriots have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 46% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 21% when blitzing since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Dolphins defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 17% in Week 4 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 33% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

Dolphins were flagged 6 times for 10+ yards on defense last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense allowed 19.2 yards per completion (288 yards/15 completions) in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.7.

The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

The Patriots defense allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 32 of 452 carries (7%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Patriots defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 41 of 550 carries (7%) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

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