- The Lions are -3.5 point favorites vs the 49ers
- Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPN+ | ESPD
The Detroit Lions (13-2-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (6-9-0) on Dec. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Santa Clara, CA.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Lions vs. 49ers Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.
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Lions vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Lions | -3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -185 |
| 49ers | +3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +150 |
Lions vs. 49ers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Lions vs 49ers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today
- David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.35 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+10.20 Units / 88% ROI)
- Brock Purdy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brock Purdy has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Deebo Samuel has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 24% ROI)
49ers Best Bets:
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.43 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions art 10-4 (+5.6 Units / 33.94% ROI).
- Lions are 13-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 17.11% ROI
- Lions are 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.35 Units / 8.16% ROI
- Lions are 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / ROI
49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 5-10 (-5.9 Units / -35.98% ROI).
- 49ers are 6-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -32.69% ROI
- 49ers are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI
- 49ers are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers
The Lions are 3-1 (.750) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .248.
The Lions are undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .573.
The Lions are 7-1 (.875) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Lions are 6-1 (.857) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The 49ers are 13-6 (.684) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 244.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The 49ers are winless (0-7) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.
The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have run successful plays on 58.2% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on 71.4% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL.
The 49ers have run successful plays on 49.2% of pass attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on 48.8% of pass attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The 49ers ran successful plays on just 33.3% of rush attempts last week — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Lions allowed successful plays on just 23.5% of rush attempts last week — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Lions have run successful plays on 49.8% of pass attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on 46.5% of pass attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Lions have run successful plays on 56.9% of pass attempts with motion this season — best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on 51.5% of pass attempts against motion this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Lions have run successful plays on 59.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The 49ers have pressured opposing QBs on 21.5% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Lions have averaged 0.17 epa per play against a base front this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Lions have run successful plays on 51% of plays against a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Lions averaged 0.43 epa per play on first read passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.
San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats
The 49ers ran successful plays on 51% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The 49ers averaged 0.47 epa per play on first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.
The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of plays against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Lions defense allowed successful plays on 11% of rush attempts with a base front in Week 16 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 71% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 12% of the time (137 Pass Attempts/1,117 plays) since the 2023 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 32% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats
The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 45% of pass attempts against play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The 49ers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 49% with a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The 49ers defense allowed -0.56 epa per play with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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