- The Steelers are -3.5 point favorites vs the Browns
- Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (2-8-0) on Nov. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Cleveland, OH.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Browns Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | -3.5 -110 | 36.5 -110 | -200 |
| Browns | +3.5 -110 | 36.5 -110 | +165 |
Steelers vs. Browns Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Browns Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+4.45 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Deshaun Watson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- David Njoku has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.80 Units / 22% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Najee Harris (Pit) | +400 |
| Nick Chubb (Cle) | +600 |
| George Pickens (Pit) | +750 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Najee Harris (Pit) | +105 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| George Pickens (PIT) | 55.5 -135 | 55.5 +100 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 12.5 -120 | 12.5 -110 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 11.5 -115 | 11.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Browns vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 37.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 66.5 -115 | 66.5 -115 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 |
| Russell Wilson (PIT) | 12.5 -110 | 12.5 -120 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 14.5 -120 | 14.5 -115 |
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Browns Best Bets:
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+4.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers art 8-2 (+5.7 Units / 52.05% ROI).
- Steelers are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 47.7% ROI
- Steelers are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Steelers are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / ROI
Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 3-7 (-4.75 Units / -42.6% ROI).
- Browns are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -51.95% ROI
- Browns are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Browns are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns
The Steelers are 17-5 (.773) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Browns have turned the ball over 51 times since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Steelers are undefeated (3-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Steelers are 9-1 (.900) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .626.
The Steelers are winless (0-3) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .190.
Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Browns are 1-6 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Browns are 1-4 (.200) at home this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .516.
The Browns are 2-6 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have run successful plays on just 36.7% of rush attempts with motion since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed successful plays on just 35.9% of rush attempts against motion since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Browns have averaged just -0.25 epa per play with motion since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just -0.06 epa per play against motion since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
The Browns have scored on 25% of their drives this season — worst in NFL. The Steelers defense has allowed scores on 29.1% of opponent drives this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 36.4% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 44.7% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed successful plays on just 46.6% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 36.2% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed successful plays on just 38.0% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on 8% of plays against a light rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Steelers were flagged 37 times on offense last season — fewest in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since Week 8 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats
The Browns have averaged -0.36 epa per play on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 14% on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Browns have averaged 0.07 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.40.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 56.8 in the red zone (109 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.4.
The Steelers defense forced 8 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense has forced 13 turnovers in the red zone since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats
The Browns defense allowed -0.11 epa per play first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.
The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 18% of rush attempts with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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