49ers vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

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(AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 12:50 PM

The Bills are -7 point favorites vs the 49ers
Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX

The San Francisco 49ers (5-6-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (9-2-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The 49ers vs. Bills Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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49ers vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
49ers	+7 -115	45.5 -110	+240
Bills	-7 -105	45.5 -110	-300

49ers vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 79.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

49ers vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for 49ers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Bets Today

Brock Purdy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)
Jauan Jennings has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 50% ROI)
Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.50 Units / 60% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Brandon Aiyuk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.25 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Amari Cooper has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Amari Cooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Dalton Kincaid has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.55 Units / 34% ROI)

49ers Best Bets:

The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.63 Units / 44% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.00 Units / 35% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.25 Units / 70% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+5.15 Units / 17% ROI)

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers art 4-7 (-3.6 Units / -30% ROI).

49ers are 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -29.15% ROI
49ers are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
49ers are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 7-4 (+2.7 Units / 22.31% ROI).

Bills are 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 32.73% ROI
Bills are 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 20.49% ROI
Bills are 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.83% ROI

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are 3-9 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 31 passes since the 2023 season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The 49ers are winless (0-4) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .442.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Bills were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Bills are 12-1 (.923) at home since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .535.

The Bills are 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .291.

The Bills are undefeated (11-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .610.

Additional Matchup Notes for San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have run successful plays on 51.8% of pass attempts with motion since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on 50.7% of pass attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Bills have averaged 0.18 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 0.06 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 46.9% since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 41.9% since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run successful plays on just 36.0% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on just 40.0% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The 49ers have run successful plays on 61.5% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on 54.8% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The 49ers are averaging 4.9 yards per carry since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 4.8 yards per carry since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of plays against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 56% of pass attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills have gone three and out 7 times in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — T-fewest in NFL.

The Bills ran successful plays on 57% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense have allowed -0.50 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

The 49ers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 49% with a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 37% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense have allowed -0.80 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

The Bills defense have allowed -1.00 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.41.

The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 14% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

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