- The Bills are -4 point favorites vs the Colts
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (7-2-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (4-5-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Bills vs. Colts Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -210 |
| Colts | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +170 |
Bills vs. Colts Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Colts Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Amari Cooper has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Colts vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -110 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Colts vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 79.5 -120 | 79.5 -110 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 25.5 -110 | 25.5 -120 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 61.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 |
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+4.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills art 5-4 (+0.7 Units / 7.14% ROI).
- Bills are 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 28.42% ROI
- Bills are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 5% ROI
- Bills are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 7-2 (+4.8 Units / 49.23% ROI).
- Colts are 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -9.85% ROI
- Colts are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Colts are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Bills are 12-3 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 39 s since the 2023 season — highest in NFL.
The Bills are 12-3 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 39 s since the 2023 season — highest in NFL.
The Bills are 12-3 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 39 s since the 2023 season — highest in NFL.
The Bills are 12-3 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 39 s since the 2023 season — highest in NFL.
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Colts are 1-4 (.200) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Colts were 1-5 (.167) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The Colts were 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have run successful plays on just 32.4% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on just 7.1% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on just 32.4% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on just 7.1% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Colts went three and out on 10% of their drives last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Bills forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.
The Bills were successful on 54.5% of plays they ran against a base front last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Colts allowed their opponents to be successful on 53.7% of plays with a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills were successful on 54.5% of plays they ran against a base front last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Colts allowed their opponents to be successful on 53.7% of plays with a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills ran 64.4% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Colts allowed their opponents to run62.9% of plays in their territory last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills have averaged 0.28 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Bills went three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Bills have run 52% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats
The Colts have thrown 57% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.
The Colts converted first downs on just 61 of 279 plays (22%) in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Bills defense have allowed -0.76 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Colts defense has forced 5 turnovers in the red zone this season — T-most in NFL.
The Colts defense has forced 11 fumbles this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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