Broncos vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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(AP Photo/Jeff Lewis)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 20, 2024, 11:57 AM

The Broncos are -5.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 41 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Denver Broncos (6-5-0) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-8-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Paradise, NV.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Broncos vs. Raiders Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.

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Broncos vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Broncos	-5.5 -110	41 -110	-250
Raiders	+5.5 -110	41 -110	+200

Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 54.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Broncos vs Raiders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today

Bo Nix has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Bo Nix has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 49% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.85 Units / 23% ROI)
Jaleel McLaughlin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Aidan O’Connell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Gardner Minshew has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Aidan O’Connell has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 52% ROI)
Alexander Mattison has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 32% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.55 Units / 29% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 30% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 19 games (+4.80 Units / 21% ROI)

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 8-3 (+4.75 Units / 39.26% ROI).

Broncos are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 23.77% ROI
Broncos are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Broncos are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 4-6 (-2.75 Units / -24.55% ROI).

Raiders are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -40% ROI
Raiders are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Raiders are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Broncos are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 19 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Broncos are 14-5 (.737) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 44 times since the 2023 season — 5th-most in NFL.

The Broncos are winless (0-4) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .190.

The Broncos were 2-6 (.250) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Raiders are winless (0-8) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Raiders are winless (0-6) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .190.

The Raiders are 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Raiders are 1-14 (.067) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .269.

Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have run successful plays on just 35.0% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 34.6% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Raiders have run successful plays on just 28.7% of rush attempts with motion this season — worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 34.1% of rush attempts against motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Raiders have run successful plays on just 29.9% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 34.9% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 57.6% of pass attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Raiders allowed successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 60.7% of pass attempts against a base rush last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Raiders allowed successful plays on 62.1% of pass attempts with a base rush last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Broncos were successful on 56.7% of plays they ran against a base rush last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Raiders allowed their opponents to be successful on 58.1% of plays with a base rush last week — 4th-worst in NFL.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos have targeted RBs 25% of the time (217 Pass Attempts/873 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos have scored on 18% of their drives in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Broncos went three and out 14 times in the 3rd quarter last season — T-most in NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats

The Raiders have run successful plays on 18% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Raiders have faced a blitz 24% of the time this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 29% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of plays with a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Broncos defense has blitzed 180 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats

The Raiders defense has allowed 9 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

28% of the plays run against the Raiders have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Raiders defense have allowed -0.55 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.

The Raiders defense has allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

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