Colts vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

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Patriots player number 38 running with NFL game ball in hand.

(Winslow Townson/AP Images)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 12:46 PM

The Colts are -2.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (5-7-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (3-9-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-120).

The Colts vs. Patriots Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colts	-2.5 -120	42.5 -110	-150
Patriots	+2.5 +100	42.5 -110	+125

Colts vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 75.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 59.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 52% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 59% ROI)
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.95 Units / 62% ROI)
Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 24% ROI)
Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+3.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.85 Units / 16% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.00 Units / 12% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 games (+2.95 Units / 11% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.95 Units / 11% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.50 Units / 11% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.30 Units / 26% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+1.95 Units / 23% ROI)
The New England Patriots have scored last in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 33% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 8-4 (+3.6 Units / 27.59% ROI).

Colts are 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -9.51% ROI
Colts are 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Colts are 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 4-7 (-3.6 Units / -27.38% ROI).

Patriots are 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -6.67% ROI
Patriots are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Patriots are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Colts were undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.

The Colts were 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.

The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Colts were 5-3 (.625) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Patriots are winless (0-7) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .528.

The Patriots are 2-11 (.154) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .535.

The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

The Patriots were winless (0-8) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Patriots TEs have 79 receptions in 12 games (6.6 per game) this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 5.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Patriots TEs have averaged 9.5 targets per game this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 5.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 76.2% of pass attempts this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 6.8 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on 63.2% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed successful plays on 61.3% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Colts ran successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed successful plays on just 28.6% of rush attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Colts ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter in Week 12 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Colts have thrown 59% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Colts defense has not allowed a TD on first drive of the game this season — fewest in NFL.

Offenses facing the Colts have thrown deep balls on just 2% of pass attempts (1/54) on 3rd and long this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 12 — most in NFL.

The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 22% of plays in the 4th quarter since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

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