Colts vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

min read

Vikings player number 18 running with a NFL ball game in hand.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 30, 2024, 2:57 PM

The Vikings are -5.5 point favorites vs the Colts
Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX

The Indianapolis Colts (4-4-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (5-2-0) on Nov. 3. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Colts vs. Vikings Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Vikings vs Colts & all NFL games with BetMGM

Colts vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colts	+5.5 -110	46.5 -110	+195
Vikings	-5.5 -110	46.5 -110	-250

Colts vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 53.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Vikings vs Colts and all NFL games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 68% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 44% ROI)
Sam Darnold has hit the Completions Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Jordan Addison has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Sam Darnold has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 58% ROI)
Aaron Jones has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 49% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.90 Units / 15% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 27% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.55 Units / 21% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 21% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 7-1 (+5.9 Units / 68.21% ROI).

Colts are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Colts are 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Colts are 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 5-2 (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

Vikings are 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 40.61% ROI
Vikings are 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Vikings are 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Colts were 1-5 (.167) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The Colts were 5-3 (.625) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Colts were undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 22 points last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .747.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Vikings were 1-7 (.125) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .263.

The Vikings were 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.

The Vikings were 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.

The Vikings were 1-8 (.111) when intercepting no passes last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have run successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 60.0% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 60.0% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 81.8% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Vikings ran successful plays on 64.3% of pass attempts against a base front last week — best in NFL. The Colts allowed successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts with a base front last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on just 33.9% of rush attempts with motion since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed successful plays on just 37.9% of rush attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Colts have been successful on just 37.8% of plays they have ran this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.7% of plays this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on just 32.7% of rush attempts with motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed successful plays on just 34.4% of rush attempts against motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Colts ran successful plays on 27% of plays in close and late situations last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Colts converted first downs on just 61 of 279 plays (22%) in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Colts converted first downs on just 6 of 53 plays (11%) in close and late situations last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings ran successful plays on 34% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Vikings ran the ball on 37% of plays (51 carries/137 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Vikings ran successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Vikings committed 34 turnovers last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Colts defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% open coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Colts defense blitzed on just 8% of plays last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Colts defense allowed 7 TDs on first drive of the game last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Vikings defense blitzed on 28% of plays last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Vikings defense blitzed on 30% of plays on 1st down last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Vikings defense blitzed on 28% of plays on Early Downs last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Vikings vs Colts and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!

About the Author