- The Packers are -3 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on NBC | TELE | UNIV
The Miami Dolphins (5-6-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (8-3-0) on Nov. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Green Bay, WI.
The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-120).
The Dolphins vs. Packers Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +3 +100 | 47 -110 | +145 |
| Packers | -3 -120 | 47 -110 | -175 |
Dolphins vs. Packers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 65.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Packers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Tyreek Hill has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Odell Beckham Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 81% ROI)
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Tucker Kraft has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tucker Kraft has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Packers vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 64.5 -115 | 64.5 -115 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 14.5 -110 | 14.5 -120 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 43.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Packers vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love (GB) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 72.5 -120 | 72.5 -110 |
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+2.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 5-6 (-1.8 Units / -14.46% ROI).
- Dolphins are 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -15.08% ROI
- Dolphins are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
- Dolphins are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / ROI
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 5-6 (-1.65 Units / -13.58% ROI).
- Packers are 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 27.87% ROI
- Packers are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.13% ROI
- Packers are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.13% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Dolphins are 6-5 (.545) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .267.
The Dolphins are winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .404.
The Dolphins are winless (0-5) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Packers are undefeated (3-0) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .596.
The Packers were undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .654.
The Packers are 5-2 (.714) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .600.
The Packers are 5-2 (.714) after a win this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have averaged 0.50 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 0.46 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Packers have run successful plays on 53.0% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed successful plays on 48.1% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Packers have been successful on 47.7% of plays they have run against a light front this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to be successful on 46.0% of plays with a light front this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 50.0% of pass attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 50.5% of pass attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 51.4% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 50.4% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 49.3% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 49.5% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins threw for 4 TDs in Week 12 — most in NFL.
The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have faced a blitz 43 times this season — fewest in NFL.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers ran 53% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of plays against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Packers have averaged -1.07 epa per play against a light rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.49 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.75 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.43 epa per play on contested throws this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of 111.7 with tight coverage (10 Pass Attempts) since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23.3.
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of 140.6 on contested throws (8 Pass Attempts) since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60.8.
The Packers defense forced 4 fumbles in Week 12 — T-most in NFL.
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 32.4 on 3rd and long (45 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 81.9.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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