- The Colts are -5 point favorites vs the Jaguars
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (7-9-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.
The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).
The Jaguars vs. Colts Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Jaguars vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Jaguars | +5 -110 | 44.5 -120 | +185 |
| Colts | -5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -225 |
Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 54.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Jaguars vs Colts Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today
- Brian Thomas Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- Evan Engram has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Anthony Richardson has hit the Passing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Adonai Mitchell has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Anthony Richardson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games at home (+6.60 Units / 66% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+0.97 Units / 9% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+2.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars art 8-7 (+0.35 Units / 1.99% ROI).
- Jaguars are 4-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -42.08% ROI
- Jaguars are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Jaguars are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / ROI
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 9-7 (+1.3 Units / 7.45% ROI).
- Colts are 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -19.35% ROI
- Colts are 8-7 when betting the Over for +0.3 Units / 1.7% ROI
- Colts are 7-8 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -10.23% ROI
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Jaguars are 2-11 (.154) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .433.
The Jaguars are winless (0-3) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.
The Jaguars are 2-3 (.400) when sacking the QB 3 or more times this season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .668.
The Jaguars are winless (0-4) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Colts are winless (0-4) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .332.
The Colts were 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.
The Colts were 1-5 (.167) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Colts RBs have averaged 5.5 touches per game in the red zone this season — T-3rd-highest in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Colts TEs have gained 1,322 yards on 107 receptions (12.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 11.5 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
Colts WRs have gained 2,614 yards on 186 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 14.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have been successful on 47.6% of plays they have run against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed their opponents to be successful on 50.0% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 50.0% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 51.9% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Jaguars TEs have 229 receptions in 33 games (6.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 5.7 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 20% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside opposing territory this season — fewest in NFL.
The Jaguars have averaged just 18.6 offensive penalty yards per game (297/16) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 25.5.
The Jaguars turned the ball over on downs 5 times in the red zone last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats
The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Colts have averaged -1.37 epa per play against a light front since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Colts have run successful plays on 22% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Colts have averaged just 4.0 yards per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats
The Jaguars defense have allowed 0.16 epa per play with a base rush this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.
The Jaguars defense have allowed 9.4 yards per play against play action passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.6.
The Jaguars defense has allowed 68 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
The Jaguars defense have allowed 0.27 epa per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats
The Colts defense has not allowed a TD on first drive of the game this season — fewest in NFL.
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
Offenses facing the Colts have thrown deep balls on just 1% of pass attempts (1/68) on 3rd and long this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Colts defense have allowed 8.3 yards per play when the opposing QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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