Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

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Louisiana monroe warhawks athlete holding the ball staring away from the camera. The player is in an light orange kit.
(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:22 PM
  • The Jaguars are -5.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
  • Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
  • Watch this game on NFLN

The New England Patriots (1-5-0) visit Wembley Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30am EDT in .

The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Patriots+5.5 -11042.5 -110+200
Jaguars -5.5 -11042.5 -110-250

Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this game with 62.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 67.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.65 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.90 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (+2.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have scored first in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored first in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 1-4 (-3.3 Units / -50.77% ROI).

  • Patriots are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -31.67% ROI
  • Patriots are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Patriots are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 2-4 (-2.45 Units / -36.84% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -62.03% ROI
  • Jaguars are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Jaguars are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Patriots are 1-10 (.091) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .537.

The Patriots are winless (0-10) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

The Patriots are winless (0-10) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .373.

The Patriots are 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .411.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Jaguars are 1-5 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Jaguars are winless (0-11) whe trailing at the end of the frist half since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .231.

The Jaguars were 2-7 (.222) when rushing for less than 100 yards last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.

The Jaguars were 8-3 (.727) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .583.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 26% of plays against a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Patriots have gone three and out 8 times in the 3rd quarter this season — most in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 36 of 74 plays (49%) on second and 1-3 yards to go since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Jaguars ran successful plays on 83% of plays against a light front in Week 6 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jaguars have started 10 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

20% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 20.6 on contested throws (22 Pass Attempts) this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 73.1.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Jaguars defense has allowed 27 receptions for 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense has allowed an average of 24.1 fantasy points per game to QBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16.0.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 89% of pass attempts first read passes in Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

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About the Author

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.