- The Jaguars are -5.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch this game on NFLN
The New England Patriots (1-5-0) visit Wembley Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30am EDT in .
The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +200 |
| Jaguars | -5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -250 |
Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this game with 62.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Jaguars Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 67.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Evan Engram has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (+2.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have scored first in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored first in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 1-4 (-3.3 Units / -50.77% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -31.67% ROI
- Patriots are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Patriots are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 2-4 (-2.45 Units / -36.84% ROI).
- Jaguars are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -62.03% ROI
- Jaguars are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Jaguars are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Patriots are 1-10 (.091) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .537.
The Patriots are winless (0-10) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Patriots are winless (0-10) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .373.
The Patriots are 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .411.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Jaguars are 1-5 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.
The Jaguars are winless (0-11) whe trailing at the end of the frist half since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .231.
The Jaguars were 2-7 (.222) when rushing for less than 100 yards last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.
The Jaguars were 8-3 (.727) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .583.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 26% of plays against a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots have gone three and out 8 times in the 3rd quarter this season — most in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats
The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — most in NFL.
The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 36 of 74 plays (49%) on second and 1-3 yards to go since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Jaguars ran successful plays on 83% of plays against a light front in Week 6 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Jaguars have started 10 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
20% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 20.6 on contested throws (22 Pass Attempts) this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 73.1.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats
The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Jaguars defense has allowed 27 receptions for 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Jaguars defense has allowed an average of 24.1 fantasy points per game to QBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16.0.
The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 89% of pass attempts first read passes in Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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