Raiders vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 9:48 AM

The Dolphins are -7.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 44 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-7-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (3-6-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami Gardens, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Raiders vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Raiders vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Raiders	+7.5 -115	44 -110	+300
Dolphins	-7.5 -105	44 -110	-375

Raiders vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Raiders vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 62.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today

Aidan O’Connell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Alexander Mattison has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.25 Units / 59% ROI)
Aidan O’Connell has hit the Completions Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 64% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 81% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.30 Units / 59% ROI)
Tyreek Hill has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Jason Sanders has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 37% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have scored first in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 11% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+1.85 Units / 22% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.15 Units / 12% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+0.75 Units / 3% ROI)

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders art 4-5 (-1.65 Units / -16.34% ROI).

Raiders are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -34.29% ROI
Raiders are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Raiders are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 3-6 (-3.8 Units / -37.07% ROI).

Dolphins are 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -40.65% ROI
Dolphins are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Dolphins are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Raiders are winless (0-8) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Raiders are 1-10 (.091) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.

The Raiders are winless (0-8) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Dolphins are 5-5 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .270.

The Dolphins are winless (0-7) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .405.

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Dolphins are winless (0-7) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .405.

Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 2.2 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Dolphins WRs have just 105.4 receiving yards per game this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Raiders have averaged just 118.9 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Raiders have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 74.9% of pass attempts this season — 4th-highest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 5.3 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Raiders are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 4.2 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Raiders are averaging just 0.5 yards per carry on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 0.9 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short this season — T-best in NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats

The Raiders have averaged -1.27 epa per play against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.05.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have not converted a fourth down on 8 plays (0%) in short yardage situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 7% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 6 of 20 plays (30%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats

The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of 121.8 when the opposing QB has scrambled (30 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65.3.

The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 32.0 on contested throws (101 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66.9.

The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 23.6 on contested throws (26 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 72.3.

The Raiders defense have allowed -0.54 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 90% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.75 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.

Dolphins were flagged 6 times for 10+ yards on defense last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

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