Titans vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to throw a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 20, 2024, 11:50 AM

The Texans are -8.5 point favorites vs the Titans
Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Tennessee Titans (2-8-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (7-4-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston, TX.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Titans vs. Texans Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Titans vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Titans	+8.5 -110	41.5 -110	+320
Texans	-8.5 -110	41.5 -110	-400

Titans vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 79.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Titans vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 60.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Titans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Bets Today

Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Mason Rudolph has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Will Levis has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

C.J. Stroud has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 31% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 54% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 60% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)

Titans Best Bets:

The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+5.90 Units / 24% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 away games (+3.65 Units / 39% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 68% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 37% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.95 Units / 44% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+3.65 Units / 37% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.30 Units / 27% ROI)

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans art 1-9 (-8.85 Units / -81.57% ROI).

Titans are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -56.41% ROI
Titans are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI
Titans are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 5-5 (-0.4 Units / -3.36% ROI).

Texans are 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 12.74% ROI
Texans are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -39.34% ROI
Texans are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 30.83% ROI

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Titans were 1-2 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Titans are winless (0-5) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .437.

The Titans are winless (0-6) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .394.

The Titans are 1-9 (.100) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .374.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Texans are undefeated (5-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .598.

The Texans are winless (0-7) vs top 10 defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.

The Texans are 4-1 (.800) at home this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .516.

The Texans are 5-2 (.714) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have run successful plays on just 35.0% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed successful plays on just 38.7% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Texans have averaged just -0.14 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed just -0.12 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Texans have run successful plays on just 30.5% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed successful plays on just 38.0% of rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Titans have run just 40.5% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to run just 35.8% of plays in their territory this season — best in NFL.

The Titans have run successful plays on just 40.1% of pass attempts against a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 41.6% of pass attempts with a base rush this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Titans ran just 32.7% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed their opponents to runjust 32.9% of plays in their territory last week — 3rd-best in NFL.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats

The Titans have run 33% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Titans have run 35% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Titans have allowed a QB Hit on 27% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Titans have scored on 20% of their drives in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have run the ball on 14% of plays (21 carries/152 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats

The Titans defense allowed 9 rushing TDs on 89 carries (9.9 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Titans defense allowed successful plays on 39% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Titans defense has intercepted 9 of 852 attempts (94.7 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43.5.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

Only 9% of the plays run against the Texans have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Only 36% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Texans defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 58% (148 completions/254 attempts) on Early Downs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 68%.

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