- Why Brentford is a great buy-low candidate against Burnley.
- The case for betting Brighton & Hove Albion as home favorites against Wolves.
- Is the market underrating Bournemouth's offense at home vs. Liverpool?
Below are my soccer picks & predictions for today’s EPL action.
Soccer betting odds are reflective at the time of writing and are subject to movement.
Brentford Moneyline (-110) vs. Nottingham Forest
I’m obsessed with this market, and it might be one of my favorite bets of the entire season.
In terms of their Premier League form, there are few encouraging signs with Brentford. They’ve lost five on the bounce in the league while conceding 12 goals.
However, they’re starting to return to full health and return talisman Ivan Toney from his six-month suspension for this match.
Plus, Brentford has massively underperformed its underlying metrics at home.
Entering Saturday’s match, they’ve posted a -1 goal differential at home vs. a +4 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
At a +0.39 xGDiff per 90 minutes, manager Thomas Frank’s side ranks ninth in the Premier League.
Now they get a Forest side that has earned results in only four of 10 road Premier League matches and will operate without a number of key players.
Talisman Taiwo Awoniyi remains out injured, while Anthony Elanga is doubtful. Defenders Serge Aurier, Willy Boly and Moussa Niakhate also won’t feature due to the Africa Cup of Nations.
That will severely hamper them against a Brentford side that ranks eighth in non-penalty expected goals this season, again per fbref.com.
Lastly, Brentford matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2021-22 season, home favorites facing an opponent on a win streak of two or more are 61.1% against the spread, including 8-2 ATS this season.
Back the Bees to earn all three points at -115 or better.
Brighton & Hove Albion Moneyline (-150) vs. Wolves
It’s nerve-wracking stepping in front of Wolves, but this qualifies as my favorite bet of the Premier League season thus far.
First and foremost, Brighton matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Teams who won the last head-to-head meeting and are -1 or shorter in the second meeting are 68.7% ATS, assuming the opponent has a win percentage above 40% since 2021-22.
Just this season, those teams are 12-7 ATS in that situation.
Additionally, it’s historically wise to fade road underdogs on a winning streak.
Since 2021-22, home favorites facing a side on a two-plus match winning streak are 61.1% ATS, including 8-2 ATS this season.
When the opponent has a win percentage over 40%, the home favorite’s record rises to 18-9-2 ATS since 2021-22, including 5-2 ATS this season.
That makes it difficult to fade Brighton on Monday, especially given they could return both Julio Enciso and Solly March from injury.
That should aid them against a Wolves defense ripe for negative regression, particularly away from home.
To date, Wolves have conceded 31 goals off 33.4 expected, including 17 goals off 18.4 expected away from home.
Additionally, Wolves won’t have their most prolific scorer for this match.
Striker Hee-Chan Hwang – one of only two Wolves players who has amassed at least five expected goals this season – is playing in the Asian Cup.
Granted, the return of Pedro Neto undoubtedly helps Wolves, but I can’t see them reversing a -1.5 post-shot expected goal differential from the first match.
Back the Seagulls to earn all three points at -165 or better on Monday, or lay a goal at -110 or better.
Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+150)
There’s some complex betting strategy at play here, but the market is underrating the Bournemouth attack.
Since 2017-18, overs are 56.3% in matches featuring home underdogs that average north of 1.4 goals per game while allowing north of 1.6.
That tells me this game features goals, especially when considering Over 3.5 Goals is +110.
From there, I simultaneously believe Liverpool is overvalued in the market.
Since 2017-18, home underdogs in games 20 onward that lost by two or more goals in the first head-to-head meeting are 57.4% ATS.
Additionally, since 2017-18, bettors that fade road favorites priced between -110 and -165 following an outright victory win at a 58% clip.
However, I’m wary of fading a Liverpool team that hasn’t lost in 13 league matches, so the likeliest outcome in this game is a draw.
Rather than backing Bournemouth +0.5 or the draw moneyline, I’ll jump at the opportunity to back Bournemouth’s offense to score two or more goals at +150.
In addition to the system analysis, Liverpool are missing a number of key defensive pieces.
Defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson, and Kostas Tsimikas won’t feature on Sunday. Holding midfielder Wataru Endo also isn’t available.
That will severely hamper Liverpool’s defense against a Bournemouth attack in good form.
Since the calendar turned to November, the Cherries are averaging 1.84 expected goals and 1.9 post-shot expected goals in nine full matches.
Over that span, they’ve scored at least once in every match and cleared this number seven times.
Back them to continue their offensive streak at +140 or better.
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