- The Padres are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Padres TV Channel: MAS2 | PDTV
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Wednesday, June 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Nationals are 38-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 42-42 ATS.
Nationals vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 1-1, 4.50 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 6-6, 4.14 ERA
Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | O 7.5 -115 | +155 |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | U 7.5 -105 | -190 |
Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.20 Units / 237% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+13.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 13 games (+38.30 Units / 295% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+14.55 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+11.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 71 games (+16.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 71 games (+13.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 73 games (+5.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 40 away games (+5.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+7.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.75 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 47-32 against the Run Line (+12.73 Units / 12.64% ROI).
- 38-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 12.7% ROI
- 35-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.7 Units / -10.06% ROI
- 40-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.33 Units / 1.52% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 42-42 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 2.58% ROI).
- 43-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -5.91% ROI
- 44-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 1.52% ROI
- 39-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -10.27% ROI
Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has a strikeout rate of 44% (16 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Davidjohn Herz has struck out 32% (21/65) of right-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 94th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 48% of Davidjohn Herz’s pitches (53/110) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (54/155) against Davidjohn Herz this month (4 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has walked 75 of 727 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (4,388/7,972) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 47% of the time (746/1,590) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (158/424) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 61-102 (.374) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Nationals are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 52-198 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .058.
The Padres are 33-4 (.892) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Padres are just 1-103 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 4-164 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .927 (1,654 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.082.
Nationals hitters have drawn 117 walks in 2,146 PA’s (6%) when leading off an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,114 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .323 (10,903 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Padres hitters have just 80 strikeouts in 523 PA’s (15%) against RHP this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 17 of 114 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers have walked 29 of 210 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (24 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,955 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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