Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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(AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:03 PM

The Buccaneers are -3.5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-3-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in New Orleans, LA.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Saints Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buccaneers	-3.5 -110	41.5 -110	-190
Saints	+3.5 -110	41.5 -110	+155

Buccaneers vs. Saints Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 55.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Saints Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Cade Otton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Cade Otton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 59% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 43% ROI)
Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+8.35 Units / 75% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.45 Units / 42% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.30 Units / 44% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Buccaneers are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 19.08% ROI
Buccaneers are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Buccaneers are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.81% ROI).

Saints are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -1.59% ROI
Saints are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Saints are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Buccaneers are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .603.

The Buccaneers are winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .305.

The Buccaneers were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .631.

The Buccaneers are 6-3 (.667) when passing for more than 250 yards since the 2023 season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .579.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Saints are undefeated (6-0) vs bottom 10 offenses since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .619.

The Saints are 3-7 (.300) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Saints are 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .439.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have averaged -0.32 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed -0.38 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

Saints RBs have averaged just 1.5 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just 1.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.

The Saints have gone three and out on 8.3% of their drives in the second half this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have forced three and outs on 8.3% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have gone three and out on 13.2% of their drives this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints have forced three and outs on 13.5% of opponent drives this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers were successful on 56.0% of plays they ran last week — best in NFL. The Saints allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.9% of plays last week — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers ran 74.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — best in NFL. The Saints allowed their opponents to run61.0% of plays in their territory last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 64% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints have averaged 0.27 epa per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Saints have not gone three and out on any of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Saints ran successful plays on 56% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 38.6 with a stacked front (22 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.9.

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense allowed -0.16 epa per play with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 113 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 4.2 in the red zone (20 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.5.

The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 55.3 with a base rush (115 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.2.

The Saints defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (9 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

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