- The Bills are -14 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The New England Patriots (3-11-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (11-3-0) on Dec. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +14 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +650 |
| Bills | -14 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -1000 |
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 86.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+3.69 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (+2.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 away games (+2.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.65 Units / 26% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 5-8 (-3.7 Units / -24.1% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -20% ROI
- Patriots are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
- Patriots are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 9-5 (+3.6 Units / 23.38% ROI).
- Bills are 11-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 27.06% ROI
- Bills are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 21.94% ROI
- Bills are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / -32.03% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are 2-19 (.095) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 31 passes since the 2023 season — T-4th-most in NFL.
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Patriots were 1-9 (.100) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.
The Patriots were winless (0-8) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are 19-7 (.731) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 51 times since the 2023 season — 5th-most in NFL.
The Bills are 16-3 (.842) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 17 s since the 2023 season — 4th-highest in NFL.
The Bills are 20-7 (.741) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — 8th-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 2.0 sacks per game over that time span — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Bills are 10-3 (.769) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Patriots have intercepted 16 passes since the 2023 season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have run 53.5% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to run 51.5% of plays in their territory this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have run 51.4% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to run 48.6% of plays in their territory since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — T-best in NFL. The Patriots forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 34.5% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on just 22.7% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Patriots have averaged just -0.26 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.16 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Patriots have averaged just -0.22 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.44 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots averaged -0.56 epa per play against a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have averaged 0.29 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Bills went three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills had 7 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 15 — most in NFL.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 29% of plays against play action passes since Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots defense allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 32 of 452 carries (7%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills defense allowed 5 TD passes in Week 15 — T-most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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