Cleveland Guardians 2025 Preview: MLB Odds & Prediction

First-year manager Stephen Vogt guided a bounce-back campaign for the Cleveland Guardians, who went 92-69 en route to the ALCS last year. This came after the team went 76-86 in 2023.

Which version of the Guardians will take the diamond this season?

Here’s a look at the latest MLB betting odds and my prediction for the Guardians for 2025:

Guardians MLB Odds 2025

Win Total: 82.5
AL Central: +275
AL Pennant: +1400
World Series: +3500

The Guardians’ MLB odds have improved following an impressive campaign, but only by the slimmest of margins. Their win total improved by three games from last year’s mark, and they rank third in odds to win the division after claiming the AL Central title in 2024.

For comparison, check out this breakdown of Cleveland’s preseason odds in recent years:

Guardians Depth Chart 2025

According to RosterResource, the Guardians will have a similar depth chart in 2025.

Carlos Santana, who will be 39 this year, is expected to start at first base after the team traded away Josh Naylor. Cleveland also traded for Luis Ortiz for some rotation depth and signed Paul Sewald to improve an elite bullpen.

Projected lineup

Projected rotation

Guardians Player to Watch in 2025

Sporting the nickname “Big Christmas” makes Jhonkensy Noel the obvious pick as the Guardians player to watch in 2025.

At 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, Noel has the power to put any pitch over the fence. Noel hit 13 home runs in 67 games during his first crack in the majors last year, but his 2-for-21 effort in the postseason highlighted some flaws in his game.

Noel, 23, can still grow into a reliable batter for a lineup that desperately needs it. I’ll monitor Noel’s home run prices this year for any potential discounts.

Guardians 2025 Betting Prediction

Based on the updated MLB odds market, I predict the Guardians will miss the playoffs (-130) during the 2025 season.

While it might seem ridiculous to pay minus odds for the Guardians to miss the postseason after winning 92 games last year, it’s worth remembering how fortunate they were in 2024.

The Guardians secured a bye due to an elite bullpen, timely hitting, and great defense. That’s not exactly a sticky formula.

Cleveland’s lineup ranked 17th in wRC+, boosted by a rare one-year blip where Progressive Field had a strong Park Factor. Cleveland’s starting rotation ranked 24th in FIP.

I’m not willing to bet on a repeat performance for the Guardians, nor are projections. FanGraphs projects a 20.1% chance of making the playoffs, while PECOTA gives a 26.2% chance.

With the Guardians’ playoff odds being -130 (56.52% implied probability) in a division that might only have one team playing baseball in October, I don’t mind paying the vig for this season-long market.

Prediction: Guardians to miss the playoffs (-130)

MLB Standings

2025 MLB Team Previews & Predictions