49ers vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

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(AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 06, 2024, 2:00 PM

The 49ers are -5.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
Total (Over/Under): 51 points
Watch this game on FOX

The San Francisco 49ers (4-4-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The 49ers vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 51 total points for the game.

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49ers vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
49ers	-5.5 -110	51 -110	-250
Buccaneers	+5.5 -110	51 -110	+200

49ers vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 65.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

49ers vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for 49ers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Bets Today

Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Anders Carlson has hit the Field Goals Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.15 Units / 45% ROI)
Brandon Aiyuk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 31% ROI)
George Kittle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 54% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.95 Units / 52% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Cade Otton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 19% ROI)

49ers Best Bets:

The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 33% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.30 Units / 57% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.20 Units / 23% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 19% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.35 Units / 59% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.13 Units / 24% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers art 4-4 (-0.3 Units / -3.45% ROI).

49ers are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -25.92% ROI
49ers are 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
49ers are 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 5-4 (+0.6 Units / 6.03% ROI).

Buccaneers are 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -4.44% ROI
Buccaneers are 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
Buccaneers are 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are 1-5 (.167) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are winless (0-3) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Buccaneers were winless (0-5) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.

The Buccaneers are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

Additional Matchup Notes for San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 55.8% of pass attempts with motion this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on 53.7% of pass attempts against motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 64.3% of rush attempts against a stacked front this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on 70.0% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers are averaging 6.1 yards per carry on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have averaged 0.58 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 0.46 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have averaged 0.18 epa per play against a base rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 0.06 epa per play with a base rush since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers have targeted RBs 7% of the time (18 Pass Attempts/242 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The 49ers averaged 0.16 epa per play on the road last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The 49ers averaged 0.47 epa per play on first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of plays against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 52% against a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 50% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 51% with a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 75.1 on motion plays (123 Pass Attempts) this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 95.9.

The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 70% of plays against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 82% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 79% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

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