Chiefs vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

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(Kyusung Gong/AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:30 PM
  • The 49ers are -1.5 point favorites vs the Chiefs
  • Total (Over/Under): 47 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-0-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (3-3-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Santa Clara, CA.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. 49ers Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chiefs+1.5 -11047 -110+105
49ers -1.5 -11047 -110-125

Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs 49ers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

  • Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Samaje Perine has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.10 Units / 62% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 10 away games (+1.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 35.51% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 43.86% ROI
  • Chiefs are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Chiefs are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 3-3 (-0.2 Units / -3.08% ROI).

  • 49ers are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -28.97% ROI
  • 49ers are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • 49ers are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Chiefs are 10-4 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .271.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) after a win this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The 49ers are winless (0-5) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .251.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

The Chiefs have averaged -1.23 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The 49ers have targeted RBs 6% of the time (11 Pass Attempts/185 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 51% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense have allowed -0.86 epa per play with a stacked front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.06.

The Chiefs defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 16% of pass attempts (9/55) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

Offenses facing the Chiefs targeted TEs 29% of the time (48 Pass Attempts/168 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 42% on 3rd and long this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The 49ers defense have allowed 1.12 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The 49ers defense have allowed 0.81 epa per play with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.06.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.