Chiefs vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

(Kyusung Gong/AP Photo)
  • The 49ers are -1.5 point favorites vs the Chiefs
  • Total (Over/Under): 47 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-0-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (3-3-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Santa Clara, CA.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. 49ers Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chiefs+1.5 -11047 -110+105
49ers -1.5 -11047 -110-125

Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs 49ers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

  • Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Samaje Perine has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.10 Units / 62% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 10 away games (+1.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 35.51% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 43.86% ROI
  • Chiefs are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Chiefs are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 3-3 (-0.2 Units / -3.08% ROI).

  • 49ers are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -28.97% ROI
  • 49ers are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • 49ers are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Chiefs are 10-4 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .271.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) after a win this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The 49ers are winless (0-5) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .251.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

The Chiefs have averaged -1.23 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The 49ers have targeted RBs 6% of the time (11 Pass Attempts/185 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 51% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense have allowed -0.86 epa per play with a stacked front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.06.

The Chiefs defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 16% of pass attempts (9/55) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

Offenses facing the Chiefs targeted TEs 29% of the time (48 Pass Attempts/168 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 42% on 3rd and long this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The 49ers defense have allowed 1.12 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The 49ers defense have allowed 0.81 epa per play with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.06.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.