Falcons vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) before an NFL football game in Empower Field at Mile High Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)

(AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 9:48 AM

The Broncos are -2.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
Total (Over/Under): 44 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (6-4-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (5-5-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Broncos Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	+2.5 -110	44 -110	+110
Broncos	-2.5 -110	44 -110	-135

Falcons vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 64.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Broncos Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
Younghoe Koo has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Ray-Ray McCloud has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 73% ROI)
Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 44% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.65 Units / 69% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Bo Nix has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Bo Nix has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 44% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.85 Units / 19% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+2.35 Units / 23% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 11% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+9.95 Units / 32% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+7.60 Units / 21% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 31% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.40 Units / 22% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 5-5 (-0.6 Units / -5.36% ROI).

Falcons are 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 3.11% ROI
Falcons are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Falcons are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 7-3 (+3.75 Units / 34.09% ROI).

Broncos are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 19.71% ROI
Broncos are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Broncos are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.

The Falcons are 5-1 (.833) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Falcons were 2-9 (.182) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

The Falcons are 3-1 (.750) on the road this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .490.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Broncos are winless (0-4) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .191.

The Broncos are 1-9 (.100) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .383.

The Broncos were 2-6 (.250) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have run successful plays on 47.0% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 47.9% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Broncos have 15 rushing touchdowns since the 2023 season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 16 rushing TDs since the 2023 season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.

Broncos QBs have been 17 sacked this season — 5th-fewest in NFL. The Falcons have sacked the quarterback 9 times this season — fewest in NFL.

The Falcons have run successful plays on just 30.0% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 39.0% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Falcons have scored on 26.5% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Broncos defense has allowed scores on 21.2% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

Falcons TEs have 69.7 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed an average of57.4 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons have averaged 0.89 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.

The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged 0.55 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos have run successful plays on 31% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Broncos have run successful plays on 0% of plays against a light rush this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos have targeted RBs 25% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/840 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (9/353) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 14% of pass attempts (9/65) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 39.2 pass attempts (353 Pass Attempts/9 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 13.9.

The Falcons defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 4th quarter in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Broncos defense have allowed 0.14 epa per play open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Broncos defense has blitzed on 27% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

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