- The Jets are -6.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 38.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The New England Patriots (1-1-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (1-1-0) on Sep. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.
The Jets are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Jets Over/Under is 38.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +6.5 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +220 |
| Jets | -6.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -275 |
Patriots vs. Jets Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Jets Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread with 66.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Tyler Conklin has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.15 Units / 75% ROI)
- Garrett Wilson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Tyler Conklin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 64% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Patriots
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | +300 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +600 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | +600 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Patriots
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | -160 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +120 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | +140 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jets vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 65.5 -110 | 65.5 -120 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 15.5 -110 | 15.5 -120 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 29.5 -130 | 29.5 +100 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jets vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 67.5 -110 | 67.5 -120 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 60.5 -120 | 60.5 -110 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+2.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have scored first in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+1.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Jets Best Bets:
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.85 Units / 31% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 1-0 (+1 Units / 45.45% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 105% ROI
- Patriots are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Patriots are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI
Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Jets are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Jets are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 45.45% ROI
- Jets are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -50% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Patriots were winless (0-4) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.
The Patriots are 1-8 (.111) at home since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .554.
The Patriots are winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .381.
New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Jets are winless (0-7) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Jets were 2-8 (.200) vs top 10 defenses last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.
The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Jets were 5-4 (.556) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
The Jets have run successful plays on just 34.0% of rush attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed successful plays on just 36.8% of rush attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Jets have run successful plays on just 34.9% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed successful plays on just 37.9% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
The Jets have averaged just -0.20 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just -0.11 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 39.3% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 39.2% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 39.9% of pass attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 39.7% of pass attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Patriots have 17 touchdown passes since the 2023 season — T-5th-fewest in NFL. The Jets have allowed 20 passing TDs since the 2023 season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have averaged -0.58 epa per play against a light rush since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.03.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots targeted WRs 18% of the time (5 Pass Attempts/27 plays) in Week 2 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.
New York Jets Offense: Important Stats
The Jets have gone three and out 4 times in the 2nd quarter this season — most in NFL.
The Jets have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Jets have converted first downs on just 25 of 61 plays (41%) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Jets converted first downs on just 19 of 51 plays (37%) on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 80.4 against play action passes (114 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.
The Patriots defense allowed -0.97 epa per play on contested throws in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.
The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
New York Jets Defense: Important Stats
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 35% of plays with a base front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of plays against play action passes since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 26% of pass attempts from their own territory in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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