New York Yankees 2024 Betting Preview: Futures Odds & Prediction

After finishing fourth in the American League East, the New York Yankees traded for star Juan Soto in the offseason. 

Now, the Yankees enter 2024 as an MLB betting favorite.

Does New York have the talent to reach the World Series for the first time since winning it all in 2009, or will the AL East be too much again?

Yankees Futures Odds

Win Total: 91.5
AL East: +180
AL Pennant: +400
World Series: +900

The Yankees are used to entering the year with high expectations.

They have opened +900 or better to win the World Series in six of the last seven seasons, while their pennant odds have been between +185 and +550.

New York’s win total has been in the 90s for the last five full campaigns, not counting the COVID-shortened season in 2020. That streak will continue in 2024, which has led to mixed results.

• 2023 win total: 94.5 (82 wins)
• 2022 win total: 91.5 (99 wins)
• 2021 win total: 95.5 (92 wins)
• 2019 win total: 96.5 (103 wins)
• 2018 win total: 94.5 (100 wins)

Yankees Offseason Moves

In December, New York made a deal with the San Diego Padres that brought Soto and Trent Grisham to town. The Yankees lost some valuable arms in the trade, but their offense should get a much-needed boost.

Additions

Departures

It would be easy to question if Soto will spend more than one season in pinstripes, as he is set to enter free agency next offseason and turned down a $440 million deal from the Washington Nationals in 2022.

But it’s just as easy to get excited about a lineup featuring Soto and Aaron Judge. The Yankees went from leading the AL in runs per game (4.89) in 2022, when they won the AL East, to 25th in all of baseball in 2023.

With Soto in the lineup, New York’s offense should bounce back this summer. But will that lead to more wins?

Yankees 2024 Betting Prediction

Prediction: Yankees to finish with under 91.5 wins (-105)

After reigning AL Cy Young odds winner Gerrit Cole was sidelined in the spring, the Yankees saw their win total drop two games from 93.5 to 91.5.

But that number is still too high, as evidenced by the vig moving from -105 to -115 since this MLB betting pick was made.

For one, there is no timetable for Cole’s return. He was informed he doesn’t need Tommy John surgery, at least for now. It’s never easy to lose a Cy Young winner, but New York’s rotation depth is a concern.

If things do get out of hand, the Yankees could always opt to trade away Soto at the deadline. The AL East is loaded, and the margin of error is thin for all contending teams in this division.

For what it’s worth, FanGraphs has the Yankees winning the division at 87.2-74.8.

There is plenty of reason to not trust any AL East team with a win total in the 90s, but especially a ballclub that has already lost one of its best players before the opener.

2024 MLB Team Previews & Predictions