San Diego Padres 2024 Betting Preview: Futures Odds & Prediction

The San Diego Padres have alternated playoff appearances over the last four years, losing in the NLDS in 2020 and the NLCS in 2022. After a disappointing 82-80 campaign last season, recent trends point to a bounce-back showing for San Diego this summer.

Or not.

The Padres traded away one of their best players in December and will have to replace most of last year’s pitching production. But have MLB odds adjusted too much on a talented team?

Padres Futures Odds

Win Total: 83.5
NL West: +1100
NL Pennant: +2200
World Series: +4500

The preseason MLB betting market indicates a step back is in store for San Diego this season.

The Padres were +900 to win the World Series last spring and +450 to win the NL with a win total of 93.5.

That said, the Padres did see their win total improve from 81.5 to 83.5 after trading for pitcher Dylan Cease in March.

Padres Offseason Moves

The Padres had a busy offseason that began with sending Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for right-handed pitchers Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Drew Thorpe, along with catcher Kyle Higashioka.

Additions

Departures

San Diego bookended its offseason with two massive trades. The first involved trading away Soto, and the second involved landing Cease in the spring.

King, 29, was the highlight of the package San Diego received for Soto and will be a crucial part of the team’s long-term success. King posted a 2.75 ERA in 49 games with the Yankees last season, finishing with the 14th-best overall Stuff+.

Vásquez and Brito will join the back end of a rotation that got a lot better with the addition of Cease. The Padres sent away Thorpe and a few prospects to land the former White Sox hurler.

Cease, who is under club control for two seasons, is two years removed from finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young odds voting. He has posted a 3.83 ERA in five seasons with Chicago.

Padres 2024 Betting Prediction

Prediction: Padres over 81.5 wins (-110)

While this MLB betting pick was made before the trade for Cease, San Diego remains underrated by the market. The Padres now have one of the best rotations in the sport.

San Diego’s win total dropped double-digit games after its 82-80 season, but things weren’t as bad as they might have seemed. This team went 9-23 in one-run games and had a Pythagorean record of 92-70.

FanGraphs projects another 82-80 campaign for the Padres, resulting in an under on their current win total.

But there are still ways to bet on the Padres’ upside this year.

After four years with the St. Louis Cardinals, Mike Shildt is now the team’s new manager. He is +900 to be the National League Manager of the Year, and is BetMGM’s biggest preseason liability in the market.

Or look for ways to bet on the Padres game-by-game, perhaps even as early as this year’s opening Seoul Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

2024 MLB Team Previews & Predictions