San Diego Padres 2025 Preview: MLB Odds & Prediction

The San Diego Padres had the eventual World Series champions on the ropes, taking a 2-1 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.

Ultimately, the team most believed was the best in baseball last October couldn’t finish the job. The Padres had to watch their division rival win another ring. So, will it be their turn this time around?

Here’s a look at the latest MLB betting market and my prediction for the Padres ahead of the 2025 season:

Padres MLB Odds 2025

Win Total: 89.5
NL West: +450
NL Pennant: +1100
World Series: +1800

The Padres’ MLB odds are getting more market respect following their 93-69 campaign. San Diego’s win total has increased by eight games from last year’s mark. It marks the team’s third-highest preseason win total in franchise history. 

Here’s how the top two seasons unfolded:

• 2023: 93.5 win total (82 wins)
• 2021: 94.5 win total (79 wins)

For context, check out this breakdown of San Diego’s preseason odds in recent years:

Padres Depth Chart 2025

According to RosterResource, the Padres project to have a similar depth chart in 2025.

San Diego has been quiet this offseason, losing pitchers Blake Snell and Tanner Scott to the Dodgers as well as outfielder Jurickson Profar to the Braves.

Projected lineup

Projected rotation

Padres Player to Watch in 2025

What does Jackson Merrill have in store for Year 2?

Merrill’s debut campaign was a doozy. He posted an OPS+ of 127 with 24 home runs and 90 RBI to generate 4.4 WAR in 156 games. If it weren’t for Paul Skenes, Merrill would have won NL Rookie of the Year.

The moment never seemed too big for Merrill, who delivered clutch hits and played a key role for the Padres on their way to the postseason. The Padres are counting on him to be even better this year, especially after losing Profar.

The BetMGM online sportsbook has an interesting market featuring Merrill, in which he has +135 odds to hit more home runs than the other two second-year Jacksons.

Which Jackson will hit the most home runs?

• Jackson Chourio (Brewers): -125
• Jackson Merrill (Padres): +135
• Jackson Holliday (Orioles): +550

Padres 2025 Betting Prediction

Based on the updated MLB betting market, I predict the Padres will finish below their win total (89.5) during the 2025 season.

I take pride in being the first on the Padres’ bandwagon last year. Their win total, which opened at 81.5, was my favorite preseason bet last spring. I also recommended taking a flier on their +4500 World Series odds.

But now the market has overcorrected itself, especially after an offseason where the Padres haven’t made any additions.

It’s also important to remember that the Padres played .500 baseball for much of the summer before it all flipped at the All-Star break. Nobody had a better record than the Padres’ 43-20 clip after the break, aided by some bullpen additions at the trade deadline.

Snell and Scott are now in Los Angeles, while Profar is in Atlanta. San Diego has shown no signs of wanting to add to this team. It’s easy to envision a drop-off this year.

The Padres can still be a dangerous squad come October, but I’ll sell my stock at this price before it’s too late.

Prediction: Padres to finish under 89.5 wins (-125)

2025 MLB Team Previews & Predictions