Boston Red Sox 2024 Betting Preview: Futures Odds & Prediction

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Boston Red Sox' Rafael Devers against the New York Yankees during a baseball game at Fenway Park Sunday Aug. 14, 2022, in Boston.
(AP Photo/Paul Connors)
Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm Mar 25, 2024, 2:31 PM
  • Boston has the lowest win total (77.5) in the AL East after winning 78 games last year.
  • Netflix will be filming a documentary of the Red Sox during the 2024 season.

Netflix has decided to make a documentary about this yearโ€™s Boston Red Sox, a peculiar choice if the purpose is to attract non-baseball fans.

Sure, the Red Sox have plenty of history, and Fenway Park is one of the best sports venues. But Boston is coming off back-to-back fifth-place finishes in the American League East, and 2024 projects to be much of the same based on Major League Baseball odds.

Will the Red Sox deliver a surprise season for Netflix in 2024?

Red Sox Futures Odds

Win Total: 77.5
AL East: +2000
AL Pennant: +3000
World Series: +6600

Things wouldnโ€™t be as bad as they seem if the Red Sox played in any other division, and these odds help indicate that.

Bostonโ€™s preseason win total is down from its 78.5 mark last year when it won 78 games. The Red Sox have only had four preseason win totals below 80 since 1990, one of which came during the COVID-shortened season in 2020.

  • 1997: 78 (78 wins)
  • 2020: 31.5 (24 wins)
  • 2023: 78.5 (78 wins)

Red Sox Offseason Moves

Craig Breslow, a former pitcher who won two World Series rings with the Red Sox, became the Chief Baseball Officer for Boston in late October. He didn’t do too much in his first offseason.

Additions

PlayerPos.
Lucas GiolitoRHP
Vaughn Grissom2B
Tyler Oโ€™NeillOF

Departures

PlayerPos.
Adam DuvallOF
James PaxtonLHP
Chris SaleLHP
Justin TurnerDH/1B
Alex VerdugoOF

More players left than arrived in Boston this offseason, which could be fine if itโ€™s all part of the long-term plan.

After signing a two-year deal in the winter, Lucas Giolito was Boston’s main addition. But he recently underwent a season-ending elbow injury, which caused the Red Sox’s win total to drop two games.

Tyler Oโ€™Neill spent all six seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, where he only had one year with more than 96 games played.

Closer Kenley Jansen appears to be one of the leagueโ€™s most likely trade candidates and could help the Red Sox prepare for the future.

Red Sox 2024 Betting Prediction

Prediction: Red Sox to finish fifth in AL East (-115)

Perhaps the Red Sox will surprise for Netflix, but that’s not the most-likely outcome.

They are -115 to finish fifth in the AL East for the third year in a row. No other team in the division is better than +260.

After a slow offseason, the Red Sox have indicated they don’t think they can compete with a loaded AL East.

PECOTA has Boston finishing eight games behind Baltimore for fourth, while FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to end up four game behind the Blue Jays.

In an extremely competitive division where anything can happen, Boston finishing fifth might be the only safe MLB betting pick to make.

  • 2024 Red Sox Schedule
    Date Matchup
    3/28/24 Red Sox at Mariners
    3/29/24 Red Sox at Mariners
    3/30/24 Red Sox at Mariners
    3/31/24 Red Sox at Mariners
    4/1/24 Red Sox at Athletics
    4/2/24 Red Sox at Athletics
    4/3/24 Red Sox at Athletics
    4/5/24 Red Sox at Angels
    4/6/24 Red Sox at Angels
    4/7/24 Red Sox at Angels
    4/9/24 Orioles at Red Sox
    4/10/24 Orioles at Red Sox
    4/11/24 Orioles at Red Sox
    4/12/24 Angels at Red Sox
    4/13/24 Angels at Red Sox
    4/14/24 Angels at Red Sox
    4/15/24 Guardians at Red Sox
    4/16/24 Guardians at Red Sox
    4/17/24 Guardians at Red Sox
    4/18/24 Guardians at Red Sox
    4/19/24 Red Sox at Pirates
    4/20/24 Red Sox at Pirates
    4/21/24 Red Sox at Pirates
    4/23/24 Red Sox at Guardians
    4/24/24 Red Sox at Guardians
    4/25/24 Red Sox at Guardians
    4/26/24 Cubs at Red Sox
    4/27/24 Cubs at Red Sox
    4/28/24 Cubs at Red Sox
    4/30/24 Giants at Red Sox
    5/1/24 Giants at Red Sox
    5/2/24 Giants at Red Sox
    5/3/24 Red Sox at Twins
    5/4/24 Red Sox at Twins
    5/5/24 Red Sox at Twins
    5/7/24 Red Sox at Braves
    5/8/24 Red Sox at Braves
    5/10/24 Nationals at Red Sox
    5/11/24 Nationals at Red Sox
    5/12/24 Nationals at Red Sox
    5/13/24 Rays at Red Sox
    5/14/24 Rays at Red Sox
    5/15/24 Rays at Red Sox
    5/16/24 Rays at Red Sox
    5/17/24 Red Sox at Cardinals
    5/18/24 Red Sox at Cardinals
    5/19/24 Red Sox at Cardinals
    5/20/24 Red Sox at Rays
    5/21/24 Red Sox at Rays
    5/22/24 Red Sox at Rays
    5/24/24 Brewers at Red Sox
    5/25/24 Brewers at Red Sox
    5/26/24 Brewers at Red Sox
    5/27/24 Red Sox at Orioles
    5/28/24 Red Sox at Orioles
    5/29/24 Red Sox at Orioles
    5/30/24 Tigers at Red Sox
    5/31/24 Tigers at Red Sox
    6/1/24 Tigers at Red Sox
    6/2/24 Tigers at Red Sox
    6/4/24 Braves at Red Sox
    6/5/24 Braves at Red Sox
    6/6/24 Red Sox at White Sox
    6/7/24 Red Sox at White Sox
    6/8/24 Red Sox at White Sox
    6/9/24 Red Sox at White Sox
    6/11/24 Phillies at Red Sox
    6/12/24 Phillies at Red Sox
    6/13/24 Phillies at Red Sox
    6/14/24 Yankees at Red Sox
    6/15/24 Yankees at Red Sox
    6/16/24 Yankees at Red Sox
    6/17/24 Red Sox at Blue Jays
    6/18/24 Red Sox at Blue Jays
    6/19/24 Red Sox at Blue Jays
    6/21/24 Red Sox at Reds
    6/22/24 Red Sox at Reds
    6/23/24 Red Sox at Reds
    6/24/24 Blue Jays at Red Sox
    6/25/24 Blue Jays at Red Sox
    6/26/24 Blue Jays at Red Sox
    6/28/24 Padres at Red Sox
    6/29/24 Padres at Red Sox
    6/30/24 Padres at Red Sox
    7/2/24 Red Sox at Marlins
    7/3/24 Red Sox at Marlins
    7/4/24 Red Sox at Marlins
    7/5/24 Red Sox at Yankees
    7/6/24 Red Sox at Yankees
    7/7/24 Red Sox at Yankees
    7/9/24 Athletics at Red Sox
    7/10/24 Athletics at Red Sox
    7/11/24 Athletics at Red Sox
    7/12/24 Royals at Red Sox
    7/13/24 Royals at Red Sox
    7/14/24 Royals at Red Sox
    7/19/24 Red Sox at Dodgers
    7/20/24 Red Sox at Dodgers
    7/21/24 Red Sox at Dodgers
    7/22/24 Red Sox at Rockies
    7/23/24 Red Sox at Rockies
    7/24/24 Red Sox at Rockies
    7/26/24 Yankees at Red Sox
    7/27/24 Yankees at Red Sox
    7/28/24 Yankees at Red Sox
    7/29/24 Mariners at Red Sox
    7/30/24 Mariners at Red Sox
    7/31/24 Mariners at Red Sox
    8/2/24 Red Sox at Rangers
    8/3/24 Red Sox at Rangers
    8/4/24 Red Sox at Rangers
    8/5/24 Red Sox at Royals
    8/6/24 Red Sox at Royals
    8/7/24 Red Sox at Royals
    8/9/24 Astros at Red Sox
    8/10/24 Astros at Red Sox
    8/11/24 Astros at Red Sox
    8/12/24 Rangers at Red Sox
    8/13/24 Rangers at Red Sox
    8/14/24 Rangers at Red Sox
    8/15/24 Red Sox at Orioles
    8/16/24 Red Sox at Orioles
    8/17/24 Red Sox at Orioles
    8/18/24 Red Sox at Orioles
    8/19/24 Red Sox at Astros
    8/20/24 Red Sox at Astros
    8/21/24 Red Sox at Astros
    8/23/24 D-backs at Red Sox
    8/24/24 D-backs at Red Sox
    8/25/24 D-backs at Red Sox
    8/26/24 Blue Jays at Red Sox
    8/27/24 Blue Jays at Red Sox
    8/28/24 Blue Jays at Red Sox
    8/29/24 Blue Jays at Red Sox
    8/30/24 Red Sox at Tigers
    8/31/24 Red Sox at Tigers
    9/1/24 Red Sox at Tigers
    9/2/24 Red Sox at Mets
    9/3/24 Red Sox at Mets
    9/4/24 Red Sox at Mets
    9/6/24 White Sox at Red Sox
    9/7/24 White Sox at Red Sox
    9/8/24 White Sox at Red Sox
    9/9/24 Orioles at Red Sox
    9/10/24 Orioles at Red Sox
    9/11/24 Orioles at Red Sox
    9/12/24 Red Sox at Yankees
    9/13/24 Red Sox at Yankees
    9/14/24 Red Sox at Yankees
    9/15/24 Red Sox at Yankees
    9/17/24 Red Sox at Rays
    9/18/24 Red Sox at Rays
    9/19/24 Red Sox at Rays
    9/20/24 Twins at Red Sox
    9/21/24 Twins at Red Sox
    9/22/24 Twins at Red Sox
    9/23/24 Red Sox at Blue Jays
    9/24/24 Red Sox at Blue Jays
    9/25/24 Red Sox at Blue Jays
    9/27/24 Rays at Red Sox
    9/28/24 Rays at Red Sox
    9/29/24 Rays at Red Sox
  • 2023 MLB Team ATS Records
    Team ATS Record ATS Win Pct.
    Reds 97-65 .599
    Orioles 96-66 .593
    Dodgers 92-70 .568
    Rangers 88-74 .543
    Tigers 87-75 .537
    Diamondbacks 86-76 .531
    Rays 86-76 .531
    Nationals 86-76 .531
    Pirates 84-78 .519
    Braves 83-79 .512
    White Sox 82-80 .506
    Twins 82-80 .506
    Padres 82-80 .506
    Cubs 81-81 .500
    Astros 81-81 .500
    Guardians 80-82 .494
    Rockies 80-82 .494
    Brewers 80-82 .494
    Yankees 79-83 .488
    Red Sox 77-85 .475
    Athletics 77-85 .475
    Mariners 77-85 .475
    Cardinals 77-85 .475
    Angels 75-87 .463
    Blue Jays 75-87 .463
    Marlins 74-88 .457
    Mets 74-88 .457
    Giants 72-90 .444
    Phillies 71-91 .438
    Royals 69-93 .426
  • 2023 MLB Team Over/Under Records
    Team Over-Under Record Over Pct. Under Pct.
    Braves 94-69-3 .577 .423
    Dodgers 90-67-8 .573 .427
    Rays 89-69-6 .563 .437
    Rangers 93-75-11 .554 .446
    Pirates 87-71-4 .551 .449
    Athletics 84-70-8 .546 .455
    Astros 91-77-5 .542 .458
    Angels 82-70-10 .540 .461
    Twins 85-78-5 .522 .479
    Orioles 80-74-11 .520 .481
    Mariners 80-75-7 .516 .484
    Red Sox 81-77-4 .513 .487
    Cubs 80-77-5 .510 .490
    Royals 79-77-6 .506 .494
    Tigers 78-78-6 .500 .500
    Nationals 77-79-6 .494 .506
    Reds 79-82-1 .491 .509
    Phillies 79-83-13 .488 .512
    Cardinals 76-80-6 .487 .513
    Marlins 74-84-6 .468 .532
    Brewers 73-85-6 .462 .538
    White Sox 71-83-8 .461 .539
    Rockies 74-87-1 .460 .540
    Yankees 71-84-7 .458 .542
    Diamondbacks 78-93-8 .456 .544
    Blue Jays 70-84-10 .455 .546
    Padres 67-86-9 .438 .562
    Mets 67-88-7 .432 .568
    Guardians 68-91-3 .428 .572
    Giants 67-91-4 .424 .576

2024 MLB Team Previews & Predictions

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.